Table 2.
Hazard Ratios (95% CIs) of Carotid Intima‐Media Thickness, Distensibility Coefficent, and Pulse Wave Velocity for Atrial Fibrillation: ARIC, MESA, and RS
| ARIC | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cIMT Quintiles (mm) (n=13 595) | P fora Trend | cIMT Continuous, per 1 SD (0.20 mm) | P Value | |||||
| <0.60 | 0.60 to <0.67 | 0.67 to <0.75 | 0.75 to <0.86 | ≥0.86 | ||||
| AF cases, n | 197 | 234 | 284 | 366 | 499 | |||
| Person‐years | 45 101 | 44 809 | 44 173 | 43 260 | 38 135 | |||
| AF incidenceb | 4.4 (3.8–5.0) | 5.2 (4.6–5.9) | 6.4 (5.7–7.2) | 8.5 (7.6–9.4) | 13.1 (12.0–14.3) | |||
| Model 1 | 1 (ref.) | 1.06 (0.88–1.29 | 1.21 (1.00–1.45) | 1.50 (1.26–1.79) | 2.07 (1.74–2.45) | <0.001 | 1.26 (1.21–1.30) | <0.001 |
| Model 2 | 1 (ref.) | 0.93 (0.77–1.13) | 0.93 (0.78–1.12) | 1.06 (0.88–1.26) | 1.29 (1.08–1.54) | <0.001 | 1.12 (1.08–1.17) | <0.001 |
| DC Quintiles (10−3/kPa) (n=10 300) | P for Trend | DC Continuous, per 1 SD (6.8×10−3/kPa) | P Value | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <11.0 | 11.0 to <14.0 | 14.0 to <17.4 | 17.4 to <21.5 | ≥21.5 | ||||
| AF cases, n | 275 | 238 | 231 | 176 | 137 | |||
| Person‐years | 29 308 | 31 723 | 34 827 | 33 866 | 35 929 | |||
| AF incidenceb | 9.4 (8.3–10.5) | 7.5 (6.6–8.5) | 6.6 (5.8–7.5) | 5.2 (4.5–6.0) | 3.8 (3.2–4.5) | |||
| Model 1 | 1 (ref.) | 0.90 (0.76–1.07) | 0.86 (0.72–1.03) | 0.75 (0.61–0.91) | 0.63 (0.51–0.78) | <0.001 | 0.84 (0.78–0.91) | <0.001 |
| Model 2 | 1 (ref.) | 1.02 (0.85–1.22) | 1.04 (0.86–1.25) | 0.97 (0.79–1.29) | 0.89 (0.70–1.13) | 0.38 | 0.95 (0.88–1.03) | 0.25 |
| Model 3 | 1 (ref.) | 1.00 (0.84–1.19) | 0.98 (0.82–1.18) | 0.89 (0.72–1.08) | 0.74 (0.59–0.93) | 0.01 | 0.90 (0.83–0.97) | 0.004 |
| MESA | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cIMT Quintiles (mm) (n=6605) | P for Trend | cIMT Continuous, per 1 SD (0.19 mm) | P Value | |||||
| <0.71 | 0.71 to <0.80 | 0.80 to <0.89 | 0.89 to <1.01 | ≥1.01 | ||||
| AF cases (n) | 18 | 40 | 43 | 88 | 121 | |||
| Person‐years | 10 613 | 10 410 | 10 538 | 10 300 | 9803 | |||
| AF incidenceb | 1.7 (1.1–2.7) | 3.8 (2.8–5.2) | 4.1 (3.0–5.5) | 8.5 (6.9–10.5) | 12.3 (10.3–14.8) | |||
| Model 1 | 1 (ref.) | 1.67 (0.95–2.92) | 1.37 (0.78–2.40) | 2.34 (1.39–3.96) | 2.66 (1.57–4.49) | <0.001 | 1.25 (1.15–1.37) | <0.001 |
| Model 2 | 1 (ref.) | 1.61 (0.92–2.82) | 1.21 (0.69–2.11) | 1.90 (1.13–3.21) | 1.94 (1.15–3.28) | 0.006 | 1.16 (1.06–1.27) | 0.002 |
| DC Quintiles (10−3/kPa) (n=6417) | P For Trend | DC continuous, per 1 SD (10.9×10−3/kPa) | P Value | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <12.4 | 12.4 to <15.9 | 15.9 to <19.4 | 19.4 to <24.2 | ≥24.2 | ||||
| AF cases (n) | 105 | 85 | 52 | 33 | 29 | |||
| Person‐years | 9544 | 10 042 | 10 147 | 10 278 | 10 207 | |||
| AF incidenceb | 11.0 (9.1–13.3) | 8.5 (6.8–10.5) | 5.1 (3.9–6.7) | 3.2 (2.3–4.5) | 2.84 (2.0–4.1) | |||
| Model 1 | 1 (ref.) | 0.97 (0.72–1.29) | 0.73 (0.52–1.02) | 0.58 (0.39–0.87) | 0.78 (0.49–1.22) | 0.01 | 0.81 (0.69–0.96) | 0.02 |
| Model 2 | 1 (ref.) | 1.03 (0.76–1.38) | 0.79 (0.56–1.12) | 0.65 (0.43–0.99) | 0.91 (0.57–1.45) | 0.10 | 0.86 (0.73–1.02) | 0.09 |
| Model 3 | 1 (ref.) | 1.01 (0.75–1.34) | 0.75 (0.54–1.06) | 0.62 (0.41–0.04) | 0.81 (0.51–1.27) | 0.03 | 0.83 (0.70–0.98) | 0.03 |
| RS | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cIMT Quintiles (mm) (n=4839) | P for Trend | cIMT Continuous, per 1 SD (0.19 mm) | P Value | |||||
| <0.88 | 0.88 to <0.97 | 0.97 to <1.07 | 1.07 to <1.18 | ≥1.18 | ||||
| AF cases (n) | 24 | 48 | 49 | 69 | 90 | |||
| Person‐years | 7198 | 7323 | 7291 | 7116 | 6748 | |||
| AF incidenceb | 3.3 (2.1–5.0) | 6.5 (4.8–8.7) | 6.7 (5.0–8.9) | 9.7 (7.5–12.3) | 13.3 (10.7–16.4) | |||
| Model 1 | 1 (ref.) | 1.56 (0.95–2.56) | 1.46 (0.89–2.40) | 1.94 (1.20–3.13) | 2.36 (1.47–3.81) | <0.001 | 1.21 (1.09–1.35) | <0.001 |
| Model 2 | 1 (ref.) | 1.37 (0.83–2.24) | 1.18 (0.71–1.94) | 1.47 (0.90–2.40) | 1.61 (0.99–2.64) | 0.05 | 1.09 (0.97–1.23) | 0.16 |
| DC Quintiles (10−3/kPa) (n=4015) | P for Trend | DC Continuous, per 1 SD (4.7×10−3/kPa) | P Value | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <7.4 | 7.4 to <9.7 | 9.7 to <12.1 | 12.1 to <15.2 | ≥15.2 | ||||
| AF cases (n) | 66 | 58 | 49 | 38 | 26 | |||
| Person‐years | 5738 | 6071 | 6086 | 6022 | 6002 | |||
| AF incidenceb | 11.5 (8.9–14.6) | 9.6 (7.3–12.4) | 8.1 (6.0–10.6) | 6.3 (4.5–8.7) | 4.3 (2.8–6.3) | |||
| Model 1 | 1 (ref.) | 1.10 (0.77–1.58) | 1.05 (0.71–1.55) | 0.96 (0.62–1.48) | 0.76 (0.46–1.25) | 0.31 | 0.94 (0.80–1.10) | 0.46 |
| Model 2 | 1 (ref.) | 1.17 (0.81–1.69) | 1.17 (0.79–1.75) | 1.09 (0.70–1.71) | 0.88 (0.52–1.50) | 0.77 | 1.00 (0.85–1.19) | 0.97 |
| Model 3 | 1 (ref.) | 1.14 (0.80–1.65) | 1.13 (0.76–1.67) | 1.03 (0.67–1.60) | 0.84 (0.51–1.39) | 0.58 | 0.98 (0.83–1.15) | 0.78 |
| PWV Quintiles (m/s) (n=4639) | P for Trend | PWV Continuous, per 1 SD (3.1 m/s) | P Value | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <10.6 | 10.6 to <11.9 | 11.9 to <13.4 | 13.4 to <15.4 | ≥15.4 | ||||
| AF cases (n) | 30 | 34 | 47 | 72 | 84 | |||
| Person‐years | 7040 | 6993 | 7061 | 6728 | 6446 | |||
| AF incidenceb | 4.3 (2.9–6.1) | 4.9 (3.4–6.8) | 6.7 (4.9–8.9) | 10.7 (8.4–13.5) | 13.0 (10.4–16.1) | |||
| Model 1 | 1 (ref.) | 0.97 (0.59–1.60) | 1.18 (0.74–1.88) | 1.64 (1.05–2.55) | 1.63 (1.04–2.57) | 0.003 | 1.18 (1.06–1.32) | 0.004 |
| Model 2 | 1 (ref.) | 0.79 (0.48–1.30) | 0.93 (0.58–1.49) | 1.18 (0.74–1.86) | 1.03 (0.63–1.67) | 0.33 | 1.05 (0.93–1.19) | 0.46 |
| Model 3 | 1 (ref.) | 0.92 (0.56–1.50) | 1.12 (0.70–1.78) | 1.54 (0.99–2.41) | 1.47 (0.93–2.32) | 0.010 | 1.15 (1.03–1.29) | 0.016 |
Model 1: Cox proportional hazard model adjusted for age and race (model 1 in RS was adjusted for age only). Model 2: model 1+adjusted for height, weight, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, use of antihypertensive medication, current smoking, diabetes, history of heart failure, and history of myocardial infarction. Model 3: model 1+use of antihypertensive medication, current smoking, diabetes, history of heart failure, and history of myocardial infarction. Incidence rates (95% CI) of AF were 7.3 (7.0–7.7), 6.0 (5.4–6.7), and 7.8 (7.0–8.8) per 1000 person‐years in ARIC, MESA, and RS, respectively. AF indicates atrial fibrillation; ARIC, Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities; cIMT, carotid intima‐media thickness; DC, distensibility coefficient; MESA, Multi‐Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis; PWV, pulse wave velocity; RS, Rotterdam Study.
P for trend was obtained from a linear term in quintile number.
Crude incidence rate per 1000 person‐years.