Table 5.
C‐Statistic, Categorical‐Based NRI, and Relative IDI for Atrial Fibrillation When Each Arterial Index Is Added to the Refitted CHARGE‐AF Model: ARIC, MESA, and RS
| C‐Statistic (95% CI) | Calibration χ2 P Value | Category‐Based NRI (95% CI) | Relative IDI (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARIC | ||||
| BM 1 | 0.769 (0.751, 0.786) | 0.07 | NA | NA |
| BM 1+cIMT | 0.773 (0.756, 0.790) | 0.15 | 0.013 (−0.009, 0.034) | 0.051 (0.016, 0.095) |
| BM 2 | 0.769 (0.752, 0.786) | 0.07 | NA | NA |
| BM 2+plaque | 0.771 (0.754, 0.788) | 0.24 | 0.001 (−0.021, 0.022) | 0.025 (0.004, 0.044) |
| BM 3 | 0.769 (0.751, 0.786) | 0.07 | NA | NA |
| BM 3+plaque+cIMT | 0.773 (0.756, 0.790) | 0.11 | 0.008 (−0.016, 0.033) | 0.058 (0.022, 0.097) |
| BM 4 | 0.761 (0.740, 0.782) | 0.10 | NA | NA |
| BM 4+DC | 0.761 (0.740, 0.783) | 0.07 | −0.012 (−0.026, 0.001) | 0.0001 (−0.007, 0.006) |
| BM 4a | 0.720 (0.695, 0.745) | 0.40 | NA | NA |
| BM 4a+DC | 0.723 (0.698, 0.747) | 0.09 | 0.001 (−0.157, 0.018) | 0.017 (0.004, 0.031) |
| MESA | ||||
| BM 1 | 0.786 (0.764, 0.809) | 0.65 | NA | NA |
| BM 1+cIMT | 0.791 (0.769, 0.813) | 0.59 | −0.011 (−0.076, 0.057) | 0.038 (−0.004, 0.089) |
| BM 2 | 0.787 (0.765, 0.809) | 0.22 | NA | NA |
| BM 2+plaque | 0.791 (0.769, 0.813) | 0.36 | 0.001 (−0.053, 0.046) | 0.034 (0.002, 0.064) |
| BM 3 | 0.788 (0.765, 0.810) | 0.58 | NA | NA |
| BM 3+plaque+cIMT | 0.794 (0.772, 0.816) | 0.59 | −0.012 (−0.058, 0.032) | 0.058 (0.012, 0.113) |
| BM 4 | 0.788 (0.766, 0.810) | 0.54 | NA | NA |
| BM 4+DC | 0.789 (0.767, 0.811) | 0.64 | −0.014 (−0.060, 0.018) | 0.006 (−0.007, 0.019) |
| BM 4a | 0.772 (0.749, 0.795) | 0.29 | NA | NA |
| BM 4a+DC | 0.773 (0.750, 0.796) | 0.32 | 0.0004 (−0.026, 0.028) | 0.012 (−0.003, 0.027) |
| RS | ||||
| BM 1 | 0.709 (0.680, 0.739) | 0.60 | NA | NA |
| BM 1+cIMT | 0.711 (0.682, 0.740) | 0.47 | 0.015 (−0.001, 0.037) | 0.009 (−0.012, 0.032) |
| BM 2 | 0.711 (0.681, 0.740) | 0.78 | NA | NA |
| BM 2+plaque | 0.712 (0.682, 0.741) | 0.68 | 0.026 (−0.008, 0.064) | 0.010 (−0.016, 0.034) |
| BM 3 | 0.708 (0.679, 0.738) | 0.48 | NA | NA |
| BM 3+plaque+cIMT | 0.711 (0.681, 0.740) | 0.46 | 0.033 (−0.003, 0.071) | 0.017 (−0.014, 0.046) |
| BM 4 | 0.711 (0.679, 0.742) | 0.52 | NA | NA |
| BM 4+DC | 0.711 (0.679, 0.742) | 0.41 | −0.003 (−0.011, 0.002) | −0.000 (−0.002, 0.002) |
| BM 4a | 0.678 (0.644, 0.711) | 0.002 | NA | NA |
| BM 4a+DC | 0.678 (0.644, 0.712) | 0.003 | 0.007 (−0.002, 0.022) | 0.000 (−0.002, 0.002) |
| BM 5 | 0.720 (0.690, 0.749) | 0.63 | NA | NA |
| BM 5+PWV | 0.720 (0.690, 0.749) | 0.63 | −0.001 (−0.014, 0.014) | 0.005 (−0.006, 0.017) |
| BM 5a | 0.692 (0.660, 0.724) | 0.0005 | NA | NA |
| BM 5a+PWV | 0.697 (0.666, 0.728) | 0.018 | 0.014 (−0.012, 0.040) | 0.047 (0.009, 0.083) |
BM 1, base model for participants with complete cIMT data; BM 2, base model for participants with complete carotid plaque data; BM 3, base model for participants with complete cIMT and carotid plaque data; BM 4, base model for participants with complete DC data; BM 4a, base model (excluding height, weight, systolic blood pressure, and diastolic blood pressure) for participants with complete DC data; BM 5, base model for participants with complete PWV data; BM 5a, base model (excluding height, weight, systolic blood pressure, and diastolic blood pressure) for participants with complete PWV data. The base model is the refitted CHARGE‐AF model in the 3 different cohorts. NRI categories are <5%, 5% to 10%, and >10% risk of AF in 10, 9.25, and 10 years in ARIC, MESA, and RS, respectively. AF indicates atrial fibrillation; ARIC, Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities; CHARGE, Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology; cIMT, carotid intima‐media thickness; DC, distensibility coefficient; IDI, integrated discrimination improvement; MESA, Multi‐Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis; NA, not applicable; NRI, net reclassification improvement; PWV, pulse wave velocity; RS, Rotterdam Study.