Table 6.
Sex‐ and Race‐Stratified C‐Statistic, Category‐Based NRI, and Relative IDI for Atrial Fibrillation When Carotid Intima‐Media Thickness and Carotid Plaque Are Added to the Refitted CHARGE‐AF Model in the ARIC Studya
| Model | C‐Statistic (95% CI) | Calibration χ2 P Value | NRI (95% CI) | Relative IDI (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Women | ||||
| BM 1 | 0.787 (0.761, 0.813) | 0.73 | NA | NA |
| BM 1+cIMT | 0.791 (0.764, 0.817) | 0.57 | 0.010 (−0.023, 0.046) | 0.068 (−0.013, 0.164) |
| BM 2 | 0.788 (0.762, 0.814) | 0.72 | NA | NA |
| BM 2+plaque | 0.790 (0.764, 0.816) | 0.92 | 0.008 (−0.026, 0.040) | 0.031 (0.001, 0.060) |
| BM 3 | 0.787 (0.761, 0.813) | 0.73 | NA | NA |
| BM 3+plaque+cIMT | 0.791 (0.765, 0.817) | 0.86 | 0.026 (−0.013, 0.062) | 0.078 (0.006, 0.162) |
| BM 4 | 0.777 (0.743, 0.812) | 0.39 | NA | NA |
| BM 4+DC | 0.778 (0.744, 0.812) | 0.38 | −0.022 (−0.047, −0.002) | 0.002 (−0.012, 0.018) |
| BM 4a | 0.735 (0.695, 0.776) | 0.02 | NA | NA |
| BM 4a+DC | 0.741 (0.701, 0.780) | 0.66 | −0.007 (−0.027, 0.012) | 0.045 (0.011, 0.082) |
| Men | ||||
| BM 1 | 0.730 (0.706, 0.755) | 0.73 | NA | NA |
| BM 1+cIMT | 0.734 (0.710, 0.758) | 0.67 | 0.014 (−0.015, 0.043) | 0.049 (0.004, 0.092) |
| BM 2 | 0.730 (0.706, 0.754) | 0.48 | NA | NA |
| BM 2+plaque | 0.732 (0.707, 0.756) | 0.72 | 0.017 (−0.008, 0.042) | 0.027 (0.004, 0.051) |
| BM 3 | 0.730 (0.706, 0.755) | 0.73 | NA | NA |
| BM 3+plaque+cIMT | 0.734 (0.710, 0.758) | 0.25 | 0.013 (−0.014, 0.040) | 0.281 (0.228, 0.337) |
| BM 4 | 0.720 (0.689, 0.751) | 0.74 | NA | NA |
| BM 4+DC | 0.720 (0.690, 0.751) | 0.77 | 0.003 (−0.003, 0.012) | −0.001 (−0.002, 0.002) |
| BM 4a | 0.703 (0.671, 0.736) | 0.92 | NA | NA |
| BM 4a+DC | 0.705 (0.673, 0.737) | 0.36 | −0.003 (−0.027, 0.022) | 0.005 (−0.007, 0.017) |
| White | ||||
| BM 1 | 0.761 (0.742, 0.780) | 0.03 | NA | NA |
| BM 1+cIMT | 0.764 (0.745, 0.782) | 0.27 | 0.007 (−0.018, 0.031) | 0.046 (0.005, 0.090) |
| BM 2 | 0.761 (0.742, 0.779) | 0.03 | NA | NA |
| BM 2+plaque | 0.762 (0.743, 0.781) | 0.08 | 0.014 (−0.016, 0.039) | 0.025 (0.004, 0.048) |
| BM 3 | 0.761 (0.742, 0.780) | 0.03 | NA | NA |
| BM+plaque+cIMT | 0.764 (0.745, 0.783) | 0.10 | 0.018 (−0.007, 0.044) | 0.054 (0.013, 0.094) |
| BM 4 | 0.753 (0.729, 0.776) | 0.41 | NA | NA |
| BM 4+DC | 0.753 (0.729, 0.776) | 0.31 | −0.005 (−0.012, −0.001) | −0.001 (−0.003, 0.001) |
| BM 4a | 0.707 (0.678, 0.735) | 0.02 | NA | NA |
| BM 4a+DC | 0.708 (0.680, 0.736) | 0.06 | −0.026 (−0.046, −0.006) | 0.010 (−0.001, 0.022) |
| Black | ||||
| BM 1 | 0.782 (0.740, 0.825) | 0.62 | NA | NA |
| BM 1+cIMT | 0.788 (0.747, 0.830) | 0.79 | 0.022 (−0.037, 0.083) | 0.068 (−0.036, 0.205) |
| BM 2 | 0.780 (0.738, 0.822) | 0.90 | NA | NA |
| BM 2+plaque | 0.785 (0.743, 0.826) | 0.73 | −0.035 (−0.084, 0.011) | 0.029 (−0.014, 0.077) |
| BM 3 | 0.782 (0.740, 0.825) | 0.62 | NA | NA |
| BM 3+plaque+cIMT | 0.790 (0.749, 0.831) | 0.65 | 0.017 (−0.045, 0.083) | 0.074 (−0.026, 0.201) |
| BM 4 | 0.786 (0.733, 0.839) | 0.73 | NA | NA |
| BM 4+DC | 0.790 (0.738, 0.842) | 0.31 | 0.026 (−0.009, 0.079) | 0.026 (−0.028, 0.079) |
| BM 4a | 0.758 (0.703, 0.813) | 0.65 | NA | NA |
| BM 4a+DC | 0.771 (0.717, 0.824) | 0.95 | −0.022 (−0.063, 0.001) | 0.083 (−0.035, 0.183) |
BM 1, base model for participants with complete cIMT data; BM 2, base model for participants with complete carotid plaque data; BM 3, base model for participants with complete cIMT and carotid plaque data; BM 4, base model for participants with complete DC data; BM 4a, base model (excluding height, weight, systolic blood pressure, and diastolic blood pressure) for participants with complete DC data. ARIC indicates Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities; CHARGE, Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology; cIMT, carotid intima‐media thickness.
Analyses for cIMT, and plaque+cIMT were based on 13 595 participants, and analyses for plaque only were based on 13 796 participants. The base model is the refitted CHARGE‐AF model in the ARIC study.