TABLE 9.
Sensitivity Analyses (Base Case Assumptions in Parentheses)
| Scenario | $/QALY |
|---|---|
| Base case | 81,000 |
| Inclusion of non–lung cancer deaths | 54,000 |
| Relative risk of screening with radiography to no screening (1.0) |
|
| 0.8 | 40,000 |
| 0.94* | 62,000 |
| 1.1 | 171,000 |
| No. future excess cases (0) | |
| 29 | 66,000 |
| 58 | 55,000 |
| Survival for stage IA NSCLC (intermediate) | |
| Low | 67,000 |
| High | 108,000 |
| Cost of screening with LDCT examination ($285) | |
| $100 | 56,000 |
| $500 | 110,000 |
| Multiplier for number of follow-up | |
| LDCT examinations (1) | |
| 0.5 | 78,000 |
| 5 | 110,000 |
| Multiplier for cost of surgery ($22,000) | |
| 0.5 | 73,000 |
| 3 | 114,000 |
| Surgical mortality (1.2%) | |
| 0.0% | 79,000 |
| 8.0% | 96,000 |
| Future health care costs (0, 0) $171,018 for CT screening $170,248 for no screening |
120,000 |
| Reduction in quality of life after positive screen (0) 0.05 |
116,000 |
| Reduction in quality of life after diagnosis of stage IA lung cancer (0.03) 0.07 |
101,000 |
| Cost of managing potentially significant incidental finding (500) |
|
| $0 | 78,000 |
| $2500 | 96,000 |
| Radiation-induced lung cancer deaths per lung cancer death prevented (0.046) |
|
| 0 | 79,000 |
| 0.092 | 83,000 |