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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2017 Jul 10.
Published in final edited form as: Stat Med. 2016 Feb 1;35(15):2516–2524. doi: 10.1002/sim.6886

Table 2.

Dose assignments for patients in the gemtuzumab trial. The target DLT rate is 0.26. The length of follow-up is 35 days. DLTs were observed in patients 4, 9, 11, 12, 14, 16 and 17 (in bold).

Pt Day
of
enrollment		 Data from
patients with
full follow-up
at the time of
enrollment		 Additional
temporary
DLTs from
patients still in
follow-up at the
time of
enrollment		 Estimated
DLT rate		 Posterior
probability that
DLT rate is in
(0.21, 0.31)		 Dose
Assignment
d1 d2 d1 d2 d1 d2 d1 d2
1 1 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 1
2 77 0/1 --- 0/0 --- 0.00 --- 0.108 --- 1
3 77 0/1 --- 1/1 --- 0.50 --- 0.111 --- 1
4 172 0/3 --- 0/0 --- 0.00 --- 0.095 --- 2
5 194 0/3 0/0 0/0 0.37/1 0.00 0.37 0.095 0.112 2
6 327 0/3 1/2 0/0 0/0 0.00 0.50 0.095 0.111 2
7 327 0/3 1/2 0/0 1/1 0.00 0.67 0.095 0.058 1
8 348 0/3 1/2 0.4/1 0.4/1 0.10 0.47 0.149 0.127 1
9 369 0/4 1/3 0.4/1 0/0 0.08 0.33 0.135 0.165 2
10 437 0/5 2/4 0/0 0/0 0.00 0.50* 0.067 0.114 1
11 448 0/5 2/4 0.69/1 0/0 0.12 0.50 0.165 0.114 1
12 508 1/7 2/4 0/0 0/0 0.14 0.50 0.193 0.114 1
13 516 1/7 2/4 0.77/1 0/0 0.22 0.50 0.257 0.114 1
14 565 2/9 2/4 0/0 0/0 0.22 0.50 0.270 0.114 1
15 636 3/10 2/4 0/0 0/0 0.30 0.50 0.278 0.114 1
16 671 3/11 2/4 0/0 0/0 0.27 0.50 0.302 0.114 1
17 676 3/11 2/4 0.86/1 0/0 0.32 0.50 0.281 0.114 1
18 801 5/13 2/4 0/0 0/0 0.38** 0.50 0.204 0.114 −1
19 815 5/13 2/4 0/0 0/0 0.38** 0.50 0.204 0.114 −1
20 850 5/13 2/4 0/0 0/0 0.38** 0.50 0.204 0.114 −1
*

The probability that the DLT rate at d2 exceeds 0.26 is 0.86 hence the dose is reduced

**

The probability that the DLT rate at d1 exceeds 0.26 is 0.85 hence the dose is reduced