Table 4.
Annual trends in microbiology results (in those admitted for pneumonia)
| Initial % change per year (95% CI) | Year of rate-change* | Subsequent % change per year (95% CI) | Direction of change† | Estimate in 2014‡ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proportion of pneumonias with | |||||
| Blood or high-quality respiratory culture taken | −3.9 (−5.5 to −2.2) | 2004 | −1.1 (−1.9 to −0.3) | ↓ ↓ | 0.62 |
| Any potentially causative bacterial organism found | −3.4 (−5.6 to −1.1) | – | ↓ | 0.05 | |
| Incidence of pneumonia with | |||||
| Blood or high-quality respiratory culture taken | 2.1 (0.5 to 3.8) | 2007 | 7.2 (6.3 to 8.2) | ↑ ↑ | 1024 |
| Any potentially causative bacterial organism found | 3.8 (1.3 to 6.3) | – | ↑ | 78 | |
| S. pneumoniae | −1.0 (−4.4 to 2.5) | – | ↔ | 29 | |
| S. aureus | 0.2 (−8.4 to 9.6) | – | ↔ | 5 | |
| E. coli | 9.8 (5.4 to 14.5) | – | ↑ | 12 | |
| Klebsiella spp | 12.3 (4.8 to 20.2) | – | ↑ | 5 | |
| P. aeruginosa | 8.6 (−5.6 to 25.0) | – | ↔ | 3 | |
| H. influenzae | 4.5 (−7.7 to 18.3) | – | ↔ | 3 | |
| Other Enterobacteriaceae | 10.6 (4.4 to 17.3) | – | ↑ | 6 | |
| Anaerobes/S. Milleri | 13.6 (2.8 to 25.6) | – | ↑ | 3 | |
| Other Gram-positives | 2.3 (−1.5 to 6.3) | – | ↔ | 8 | |
| Other Gram-negatives | 35.0 (−16.6 to 118.6) | – | ↔ | 1 | |
| Mixed organisms | 7.8 (0.8 to 15.4) | − | ↑ | 4 | |
All trends modelled using piecewise linear Poisson regression.
*Allowing change in trend over time if significant improvement over linear trend alone (p<0.05), with year of the change point chosen by profile likelihood8 (see Methods).
†Single arrows represent direction of change over the whole time period; paired arrows represent direction and relative size of change in the periods before and after the year when data suggested trend in rates changed (as in *).
‡Proportion/number of admissions, as estimated by the best-fitting model as presented in the table.