Table 2.
Predicted probabilities of GP admission (vs A and E admission) and corresponding expected numbers of GP admissions, according to access to general practice, derived from multivariable multilevel logistic regression models
| Predicted probabilities of GP admission, by access to general practice* | Expected numbers of GP admissions, by access to general practice*† | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | <80 | Actual | ≥95 | 100 | 60 | <80 | Actual | ≥95 | 100 | |
| All conditions | 10.0 | 13.6 | 17.9 | 19.6 | 20.9 | 231 183 | 316 559 | 414 842 | 456 232 | 484 773 |
| Subgroups | ||||||||||
| COPD | 8.7 | 11.0 | 14.7 | 16.2 | 17.0 | 8 532 | 10 758 | 14 341 | 15 763 | 16 576 |
| Pneumonia | 7.7 | 10.8 | 14.9 | 16.6 | 17.6 | 10 285 | 14 457 | 19 826 | 22 075 | 23 437 |
| Urinary tract infections | 10.9 | 12.5 | 17.4 | 18.5 | 19.7 | 12 025 | 13 766 | 19 109 | 20 390 | 21 690 |
Results adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, urban/rural area of residence, diagnosis risk of general practice admission, the day and month of admission and the region of residence.
60, minimum value of access; <80, lowest access category; ≥95, highest access category; 100, maximum value of access; actual, access as recorded in dataset.
*Percentage of GP Patient Survey respondents registered to the patient's general practice who were able to obtain a general practice appointment on their last attempt.
†Obtained by multiplying the predicted probabilities by the number of admissions in the sample (all conditions: 2 322 112).
A and E, accident and emergency; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; GP, general practitioner.