Table 6.
Scenario analysis results
| Outcome | Morphine | Novel therapy | Incremental, novel therapy versus morphine |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario 1: “Base case” | |||
| Costs | 845.3130 | 2126.7532 | £1281.44 |
| QALYs | 0.505 | 0.572 | 0.067 |
| ICER | £19,126.66 | ||
| Scenario 2: “3rd-line treatment considered” | |||
| Costs | £652.18 | £2022.08 | £1369.90 |
| QALYs | 0.536 | 0.589 | 0.053 |
| ICER | £25,899.20 | ||
| Scenario 3: “Morphine as 2nd-line treatment on novel therapy arm” | |||
| Costs | £845.31 | £2125.49 | £1280.18 |
| QALYs | 0.505 | 0.554 | 0.048 |
| ICER | £26,550.64 | ||
| Scenario 4: “Titration and stabilisation” | |||
| Costs | £874.29 | £1867.79 | £993.50 |
| QALYs | 0.490 | 0.561 | 0.070 |
| ICER | £14,170.81 | ||
| Scenario 5: “Improvement in analgesic effect” | |||
| Costs | £845.31 | £2126.75 | £1281.44 |
| QALYs | 0.505 | 0.591 | 0.085 |
| ICER | £15,000.22 | ||
| Scenario 6: “2-year time horizon” | |||
| Costs | £1787.01 | £3390.83 | £1603.82 |
| QALYs | 0.864 | 0.996 | 0.132 |
| ICER | £12,182.50 | ||
| Scenario 7: “No assumed HRQL decrement over successive treatment lines” | |||
| Costs | £845.31 | £2126.75 | £1281.44 |
| QALYs | 0.557 | 0.603 | 0.046 |
| ICER | £27,970.41 | ||