Table 2.
Multivariate analysis of epidemiological parameters affecting HIV incidence in 15–49-year-olds (2015–2035)
| Unit change | RR (95% CI) of HIV incidence per unit change | p | Change required to achieve a 5% incidence reduction |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10% increase in viral suppression (absolute) | 0.857 (0.851–0.862) | <0.001 | 3.31% |
| 10% increase in odds of condom use (ST partners), relative to 2011/12 | 0.972 (0.970–0.973) | <0.001 | 17.8% |
| 10-year reduction in time to intensified counselling | 0.916 (0.908–0.924) | <0.001 | −5.82 |
| 10-year reduction in time to universal ART eligibility | 0.924 (0.916–0.931) | <0.001 | −6.45 |
| 10% increase in annual MMC uptake (absolute) | 0.965 (0.961–0.968) | <0.001 | 14.2% |
| 1-year reduction in ART delay following diagnosis | 0.909 (0.899–0.918) | <0.001 | −0.53 |
| 10-year reduction in time to youth PrEP | 0.932 (0.925–0.940) | <0.001 | −7.32 |
| 10% increase in coverage of intensified risk reduction counselling for HIV-diagnosed | 0.983 (0.981–0.986) | <0.001 | 0.300 |
| 10-year reduction in time to HBCT | 0.954 (0.947–0.962) | <0.001 | −11.0 |
| 10% increase in effectiveness of intensified risk reduction counselling for HIV-diagnosed (absolute) | 0.981 (0.978–0.984) | <0.001 | 7.0% |
| 1-year reduction in partner age difference (ST partners) | 0.968 (0.962–0.975) | <0.001 | −1.59 |
| 10% increase in odds of condom use (SW–client relationships), relative to 2011/12 | 0.994 (0.993–0.995) | <0.001 | 87.4% |
| 10% increase in efficacy of PrEP (absolute) | 0.990 (0.987–0.993) | <0.001 | 50.5% |
| 10% increase in annual HCT uptake in youth (absolute) | 0.961 (0.950–0.972) | <0.001 | 12.8% |
| 10% increase in rate of marriage, relative to 2011/12 | 0.989 (0.986–0.992) | <0.001 | 46.1% |
| 10% increase in annual PrEP uptake by youth (absolute) | 0.989 (0.986–0.993) | <0.001 | 47.3% |
| 10% decrease in rate of sexual debut, relative to 2011/12 | 0.992 (0.988–0.995) | <0.001 | −62.7% |
| 10% increase in fraction starting ART immediately after diagnosis (absolute) | 0.987 (0.981–0.994) | <0.001 | 40.5% |
| 10% increase in annual HBCT uptake (absolute) | 0.995 (0.990–1.000) | 0.030 | –a |
| 10% increase in male-to-female HBCT uptake ratio (absolute) | 0.990 (0.980–1.000) | 0.040 | 50.1% |
Parameters are ordered according to statistical significance. Only parameters with p values <0.05 were included in the final model.
a
It is not possible to achieve a 5% incidence reduction based only on changing this parameter.
ART=antiretroviral treatment, HBCT=home-based counselling and testing, HCT=HIV counselling and testing, MMC=medical male circumcision, PrEP=pre-exposure prophylaxis, ST=short-term, SW=sex worker.