Table 2.

Primary end point (Bayesian analysis including historical controls)

CDAI change from baseline to week 6
Treatment	n	Mean (SD)	95% Credible interval*
Secukinumab twice 10 mg/kg	39	−29.2 (14.0)	−56.9 to −1.4
Placebo	20	−63.1 (13.9)	−90.4 to −35.9
ΔCDAI (AIN457 vs placebo)		33.9 (19.7)	−4.9 to 72.9

Probability that secukinumab reduces CDAI more than placebo =4.4%.

Probability that secukinumab reduces CDAI by ≥50 points more than placebo <0.1%.

Probability that secukinumab reduces CDAI by <40 points more than placebo >99.9%.

^*Bayesian statistics report probabilities and credible intervals, unlike frequentist statistics that report p values and CIs.

CDAI, Crohn’s Disease Activity Index.