Fig 5. Individual determinants of increased HSV-2 shedding rate.

Critical model predictors of shedding rate in 10-year simulations with 1000 parameter sets. Curves in all panels indicate best fit with a polynomial model while dots are single simulations. (A) HSV-2 release rate from ganglia to the genital tract (R² = 0.17), (B) Genital T-cell decay rate (R² = 0.29), (C) HSV-2 DNA clearance rate (R² = 0.30), predict shedding rate to various degrees. Genital T-cell levels in the model are intended as a surrogate measure of cytolytic immune potential.