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. 2016 Jun 10;7:11609. doi: 10.1038/ncomms11609

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Participant updating behaviour was fit with a flexible version of the normative model. (a) Mean and 95% confidence intervals on standardized differences (young–old) for maximum likelihood parameter estimates of: (1) uncertainty underestimation (Unc), (2) expectations about the hazard of change points (Haz), (3) sensitivity to surprising outcomes (SS), (4) update variability (UV), (5) learning rate variability (LRV). (b) Maximum likelihood estimates of uncertainty underestimation (ordinate) and learning rate variability (abscissa) for young (orange squares) and old (blue circles) participants.