Table 2.
Adjusted odds ratios and risk scores of need for ART change
| Predictor | Model 1 (with baseline VL) (n = 290), AUROC = 0.8165 | Model 2 (without baseline VL) (n = 290), AUROC = 0.7981 | Model 3 (without baseline VL or CD4) (n = 260), AUROC = 0.7937 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full model OR (95 % CI) | Reduced OR (95 % CI) | βb | Predictor scorea | Full model OR (95 % CI) | Reduced model OR (95 % CI) | βc | Predictor scorea | Full model OR (95 % CI) | OR (95 % CI) | βd | Predictor scorea | |
| Age, years | ||||||||||||
| ≤ 30 | 2.2 (1.0–4.6) | 2.1 (1.0–4.1) | 0.72 | 1 | 1.8 (0.9–3.7) | 1.8 (0.9–3.5) | 0.59 | 1 | 1.6 (0.8–3.2) | 1.7 (0.9–3.4) | 0.53 | 1 |
| > 30 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | |||
| Sex | ||||||||||||
| Male | 0.7 (0.4–1.4) | - - | - | - | 0.7 (0.3–1.3) | - - | - | - | 0.7 (0.4–1.4) | - - | - | - |
| Female | 1.0 | - - | - | - | 1.0 | - - | - | - | 1.0 | - - | - | - |
| BMI, kg/m2 | ||||||||||||
| Normal/low (<24.9) | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | |||
| High (>25.0) | 2.8 (1.2–6.4) | 3.7 (1.8–7.8) | 1.31 | 2 | 2.5 (1.1–5.6) | 3.2 (1.6–6.6) | 1.18 | 2 | 2.3 (1.1–4.1) | 2.7 (1.2–5.7) | 0.98 | 2 |
| Treatment initiation VL, copies/ml | ||||||||||||
| ≤ 100,000 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | - - | - - | - | - | - - | - - | - | - | |
| > 100,000 | 3.2 (1.5–7.1) | 3.6 (1.8–7.0) | 1.27 | 2 | - - | - - | - | - | - - | - - | - | - |
| Time on therapy, months | ||||||||||||
| < 7 | 4.2 (1.9–9.2) | 4.2 (2.0–8.6) | 1.43 | 3 | 3.9 (1.8–8.3) | 4.3 (2.1–8.7) | 1.45 | 3 | 3.6 (1.7–7.6) | 3.7 (1.8–7.8) | 1.32 | 3 |
| 7–12 | 2.0 (0.8–5.1) | 2.9 (1.2–6.9) | 1.07 | 2 | 1.9 (0.8–4.8) | 3.1 (1.3–7.2) | 1.13 | 2 | 1.9 (0.8–4.8) | 2.1 (0.9–5.2) | 0.76 | 2 |
| > 12 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | ||||
| VLe, copies/ml | ||||||||||||
| ≤ 10,000 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | |||
| 10,001–100,000 | 7.3 (3.4–15.9) | 6.3 (3.1–13.0) | 1.85 | 4 | 7.4 (3.4–15.8) | 6.3 (3.1–12.8) | 1.85 | 4 | 6.5 (3.1–13.5) | 6.5 (3.1–13.3) | 1.87 | 4 |
| > 100,000 | 2.8 (1.1–7.2) | 2.7 (1.2–6.1) | 0.99 | 2 | 2.7 (1.1–6.8) | 3.1 (1.4–7.0) | 1.15 | 2 | 2.7 (1.1–6.6) | 3.0 (1.2–7.2) | 1.10 | 2 |
| CD4 at screening, cells/mm3 | ||||||||||||
| ≤ 100 | 1.8 (0.9–3.9) | - - | - | - | 2.6 (1.3–5.3) | 2.2 (1.2–4.3) | 0.81 | 2 | - - | - - | - | - |
| > 100 | 1.0 | - - | - | - | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | - - | - - | - | - | |
| History of TB | ||||||||||||
| Yes | 1.0 | - - | - | - | 1.0 | - - | - | - | 1.0 | - - | - | - |
| No | 1.8 (0.7–4.5) | - - | - | - | 1.3 (0.6–3.2) | - - | - | - | 1.3 (0.6–3.2) | - - | - | - |
| Treatment changed while on study | ||||||||||||
| Yes | 0.4 (0.1–1.3) | - - | - | - | 0.4 (0.1–1.2) | - - | - | - | 0.4 (0.1–1.3) | - - | - | - |
| No | 1.0 | - - | - | - | 1.0 | - - | - | - | 1.0 | - - | - | - |
| Ever missed meds | ||||||||||||
| Yes | 1.8 (0.9–3.7) | - - | - | - | 2.1 (1.0–4.1) | - - | - | - | 2.1 (1.0–4.1) | 1.8 (1.0–3.6) | 0.61 | 1 |
| No | 1.0 | - - | - | - | 1.0 | - - | - | - | 1.0 | 0 | ||
aweighted; bconstant = −3.94; cconstant = −3.42; dconstant = −3.11
eViral load at time of first VL ≥1000 copies/ml
CI confidence interval, β beta regression coefficient, BMI body mass index, NNRTI non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, NRTI nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, OR odds ratio, AUROC area under receiver operating characteristic curve, VL viral load