Table 1.
Observed and forecasted values for selected yearsa
| 2009 | 2014 | 2015 | 2020 | 2025 | APC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period (2015–2025) | ||||||
| Number of NJUEBMI population (No.) (Linear Trend)b |
2,032,074 | 2,968,697 | 3,156,022 | 4,092,646 | 5,029,270 | 4.77 % |
| 2,050,731 | 2,921,065 | (3,087,175–3,224,869) | (4,023,799–4,161,493) | (4,960,423–5,098,117) | ||
| Incidence (pmp) | ||||||
| All ESRD (Linear Trend) |
205.9 | 219.8 | 222.6 | 236.5 | 250.5 | 1.19 % |
| 206.8 | 218.8 | (219.8–225.4) | (233.7–239.4) | (247.7–253.3) | ||
| HD (Linear Trend) |
171.5 | 183.5 | 185.9 | 197.9 | 209.9 | 1.22 % |
| 171.2 | 182.5 | (184.2–187.6) | (196.2–199.6) | (208.2–211.7) | ||
| PD (Damped Trend Exponential Smoothing) |
22.0 | 27.9 | 28.9 | 34.3 | 39.8 | 3.25 % |
| 22.4 | 27.4 | (26.9–30.9) | (32.0–36.6) | (37.2–42.3) | ||
| Kidney Transplant (Log Linear (Holt) Exponential Smoothing) |
12.4 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 4.1 | −6.58 % |
| 13.2 | 8.9 | (7.0–9.4) | (4.9–6.7) | (3.4–5.0) | ||
| Prevalence (pmp) | ||||||
| All ESRD (Linear Trend) |
1083 | 1215 | 1241 | 1373 | 1505 | 1.95 % |
| 1083 | 1228 | (1186–1297) | (1318–1428) | (1450–1560) | ||
| HD (Damped Trend Exponential Smoothing) |
815.9 | 928.8 | 967.4 | 1070 | 1128 | 1.55 % |
| 820.2 | 942.5 | (915.4–1019) | (765.5–1374) | (529.1–1727) | ||
| PD (Linear Trend) |
74.0 | 120.6 | 129.9 | 176.6 | 223.2 | 5.56 % |
| 71.7 | 125.3 | (124.5–135.4) | (171.1–182.0) | (217.7–228.7) | ||
| Kidney Transplant (Linear Trend) |
195.7 | 150.3 | 141.2 | 95.8 | 50.4 | −9.79 % |
| 190.7 | 160.6 | (128.6–153.8) | (83.2–108.4) | (37.8–63.0) | ||
| Health care costs (¥, in millions) | ||||||
| All ESRD (Linear (Holt) Exponential Smoothing) |
172.0 | 318.9 | 341.5 | 470.9 | 600.3 | 5.80 % |
| 168.5 | 315.6 | (323.9–359.0) | (427.7–514.1) | (541.8–658.9) | ||
| HD (Linear Trend) |
160.5 | 271.7 | 294.0 | 405.3 | 516.5 | 5.80 % |
| 153.5 | 275.5 | (279.3–308.7) | (390.6–419.9) | (501.9–531.2) | ||
| PD (Damped Trend Exponential Smoothing) |
7.8 | 32.2 | 34.1 | 45.9 | 54.6 | 4.82 % |
| 10.5 | 31.1 | (30.1–38.1) | (18.3–73.5) | (−4.0–113.2) | ||
| Kidney Transplant (Linear Trend) |
5.3 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 13.5 | 17.3 | 5.85 % |
| 4.5 | 9.0 | (8.6–10.9) | (12.4–14.7) | (16.1–18.4) | ||
| Per capita medical expenses (¥, in thousands) | ||||||
| All ESRD (Logistic Linear Trend) |
76.1 | 90.3 | 92.1 | 97.1 | 99.0 | 7.25‰ |
| 75.9 | 87.9 | (89.2–94.2) | (96.0–97.9) | (98.6–99.3) | ||
| HD (Linear (Holt) Exponential Smoothing) |
88.7 | 104.7 | 106.5 | 120.8 | 135.0 | 2.40 % |
| 91.2 | 100.1 | (98.8–114.3) | (112.2–129.4) | (125.7–144.4) | ||
| PD (Logistic Linear Trend) |
68.2 | 92.3 | 94.4 | 98.9 | 99.8 | 5.58‰ |
| 71.3 | 84.9 | (84.9–98.1) | (96.9–99.6) | (99.4–99.9) | ||
| Kidney Transplant (Linear Trend) |
12.7 | 20.5 | 22.1 | 29.9 | 37.8 | 5.51 % |
| 11.6 | 19.2 | (19.6–24.5) | (27.5–32.4) | (35.3–40.2) | ||
Abbreviations: APC annual percentage change, NJUEBMI Nanjing urban employee basic medical insurance, ESRD end stage renal disease, HD hemodialysis, PD peritoneal dialysis, pmp per million population
aThe top values for each variable are the forecasted values. The bottom values for each variable in the 2009 and 2014 columns are the observed values. The bottom values in the 2015, 2020, and 2025 columns are 95 % confidence intervals for the forecasts
bThe selected forecasting models are listed in the brackets below each variable, separately