Table 5.
Predicted estimates of prevalence (%) of patent infection for a given (2-snip) sensitivity and observed prevalence of microfilariae
| Per ivermectin dose reduction in microfilarial production | 1 year after last treatment | 3 years after last treatment | 5 years after last treatment | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sensitivitya | Prevalence (%) | Sensitivitya | Prevalence (%) | Sensitivitya | Prevalence (%) | ||||
| Obsb | Pred | Obsb | Pred | Obsb | Pred | ||||
| 0 % reduction per treatment | |||||||||
| 31 % | 0.25 | 0.8 | 67 % | 0.25 | 0.4 | 76 % | 0.25 | 0.3 | |
| 0.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.7 | ||||
| 1.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | ||||
| 7 % reduction per treatment | |||||||||
| 18 % | 0.25 | 1.4 | 51 % | 0.25 | 0.5 | 62 % | 0.25 | 0.4 | |
| 0.5 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | ||||
| 1.0 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | ||||
| 35 % reduction per treatment | |||||||||
| 0.6 % | 0.25 | nac | 3.0 % | 0.25 | 8.3 | 4.7 % | 0.25 | 5.3 | |
| 0.5 | nac | 0.5 | nac | 0.5 | nac | ||||
| 1.0 | nac | 1.0 | nac | 1.0 | nac | ||||
aSensitivity for 2 skin snips based on k m = 0.42 (mean of the country-specific estimates for 1–10 adult female worms)
bObserved prevalence based on 2 skin snips
c na not applicable, we do not present predicted prevalence when greater than 10 % since eqn [6] is only valid when infection is rare