Table 3.
Maximum-likelihood estimates (MLE) and 95 % highest posterior density (HPD) intervals of demographic parameters of isolation with migration model
| Parameter | MLE | HPD95Loa | HPD95Hib |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ns c | 429802 | 258540 | 663640 |
| Np c | 541781 | 344171 | 825022 |
| Nd c | 535194 | 360638 | 772326 |
| Nsp c | 80691 | 0 | 627412 |
| ms>p d | 1.14E-09 | 0 | 5.09E-07 |
| mp>s d | 1.92E-07 | 7.97E-09 | 5.43E-07 |
| ms>d d | 1.14E-09 | 0 | 1.22E-07 |
| md>s d | 1.14E-09 | 0 | 1.17E-07 |
| mp>d d | 1.14E-09 | 0 | 1.24E-07 |
| md>p d | 5.35E-08 | 0 | 2.17E-07 |
| md>sp d | 8.84E-07 | 1.81E-07 | 2.28E-06 |
| msp>d d | 1.14E-09 | 0 | 2.10E-06 |
| 2Nsms>p e | 0.00081 | - | - |
| 2Nsms>d e | 0.00039 | - | - |
| 2Npmp>s e | 0.23800 | - | - |
| 2Npmp>d e | 0.00054 | - | - |
| 2Ndmd>s e | 0.00044 | - | - |
| 2Ndmd>p e | 0.06182 | - | - |
| 2Ndmd>sp e | 0.94860 | - | - |
| 2Nspmsp>d e | 0.00750 | - | - |
| t0 f | 1116496 | 668580 | 2217184 |
| t1 f | 2546534 | 1657289 | 6583046 |
aLower 95 % HPD
bHigher 95 % HPD
cEffective population sizes of A. scirpaceus (Ns), A. palustris (Np), A. dumetorum (Nd), and the common ancestor of A. scirpaceus and A. palustris (Nsp) in numbers of individuals
dMigration rates per year (species are marked in the same way as above, e.g., ms>p indicates migration from A. palustris into A. scirpaceus)
eThe population migration rate (species are marked in the same way as above, e.g., 2Nsms>p indicates population migration rate from A. palustris to A. scirpaceus)
fDivergence time between A. scirpaceus and A. palustris (t0) and between A. dumetorum and the common ancestor of A. scirpaceus and A. palustris (t1) in numbers of years