Table 2.

Model transition probabilities by GOLD states

		First cycle			Subsequent cycles
		To			To
		GOLD II	GOLD III	GOLD IV	GOLD II	GOLD III	GOLD IV
TIO/GLY
From	GOLD II	0.92	0.08	0.00	0.92	0.08	0.00
	GOLD III	0.17	0.80	0.03	0.08	0.88	0.04
	GOLD IV	0.03	0.28	0.69	0.00	0.12	0.88
Off treatment
From	GOLD II	0.86	0.13	0.01	0.91	0.09	0.00
	GOLD III	0.13	0.81	0.06	0.08	0.88	0.04
	GOLD IV	0.02	0.22	0.76	0.00	0.13	0.87

Notes: For TIO and GLY cohorts, usual care probabilities were assumed to hold when off treatment. Probabilities have been recalculated to reflect 3-month probabilities. Death has been excluded, as this model carries separate mortality rates derived for each country’s population. Based on own calculations using data from Hettle et al²⁷ (derived from UPLIFT¹⁶).

Abbreviations: GOLD II, GOLD classification indicating moderate COPD; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; GOLD III, GOLD classification indicating severe COPD; GOLD IV, GOLD classification indicating very severe COPD; TIO, Tiotropium; GLY, glycopyrronium; UPLIFT, Understanding Potential Long-term Impacts on Function with Tiotropium.