Table 3.

Model probabilities of exacerbations by GOLD states

Event/GOLD	Off treatment			Tiotropium			Glycopyrronium
	II	III	IV	II	III	IV	II	III	IV
No exacerbation	0.84	0.78	0.73	0.87	0.81	0.77	0.86	0.79	0.74
Nonsevere exacerbation	0.14	0.17	0.18	0.11	0.14	0.15	0.11	0.14	0.14
Severe exacerbation	0.02	0.05	0.08	0.02	0.05	0.08	0.03	0.07	0.12

Notes: Usual care probabilities from UPLIFT were used in cycles off treatment. Probabilities reflect 3-month risks. Data from Hettle et al²⁷ (derived from UPLIFT), SPARK,¹⁹ and own calculations.

Abbreviations: GOLD, Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease; UPLIFT, Understanding Potential Long-term Impacts on Function with Tiotropium.