Table 1.
Market model, insulin for types 1 and 2 diabetes. Diabetes statistics providing estimates for population sizes were collected from the American diabetes association [31].
| Microchips in insulin delivery for types 1 & 2 diabetes for Company X | |
|---|---|
| US diabetes type 1 prevalence (millions) | 1.75 |
| US diabetes type 2 prevalence (millions) | 21 |
| Total (millions) | 22.75 |
| Annual increase in diabetes population (millions) | 1.4 |
| Annual decrease in diabetes population (millions) (mortality rate ∗ diabetes prevalence) |
0.2418 |
| Annual increase in prevalence (millions) | 1.1582 |
| Delivery methods | |
| Insulin only | 14% |
| Oral only | 56.90% |
| Insulin & oral | 14.40% |
| Other | 14.70% |
| Total on insulin | 28.40% |
| ∗ Insulin only refers to both pump and syringe treatments | |
| Average conversion rate to microchip therapy | |
| Insulin only | 25.00% |
| Oral only | 10.00% |
| Insulin & oral | 17.50% |
| Other | 2.50% |
| Percentage of population on microchip | 12.0775% |
| Pricing of microchip therapy∗ (2015 dollars) | |
| Annual per patient cost | $10,000 |
| ∗Based upon top line pricing of insulin pump treatments & insertion procedures | |
| Raw peak sales∗ | |
| Year 2035 (millions) | $55,452.63 |
| ∗Accounting for increase in patient population size | |
| Probability of success | 15% |
| Share of market | 10% |
| Company X peak sales (millions) | $831.79 |
∗Preceding assumptions.