Table 2.

Selected results of the model fitting

Output	Mean (95 % CI)
Mean reproductive number	1.77 (1.46–2.30)
Mean duration of the infectious period	16.8 days (8.6–24.9)
Amplitude of seasonal variation in transmission	0.57 (0–1.74)
Peak day of seasonal variation in transmission	138 (91–215) May 18 (Apr 1 to Aug 3)
Per-dose efficacy of oral polio vaccine (OPV)	0.63 (0–1)
Attack rate at the end of 2014 with the OPV campaign	0.42 (0.22–0.65)
Attack rate at the end of 2014 without the OPV campaign	0.57 (0.35–0.74)
Reduction in attack rate due to OPV campaign	0.15 (0–0.40)
End time of the outbreak with the OPV campaign	April 12, 2014 (Jan 19, 2014, to Oct 8, 2014)
End time of the outbreak without the OPV campaign	February 15, 2015 (Feb 18, 2014, to Nov 12, 2016)
Reduction in outbreak duration due to OPV campaign	309 days (2–846)