Table 3.
Risk factors for the occurrence of ESRD or death in 5 years
| Variable | Univariate model | Multivariable model* | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| ||||
| HR (95% CI) | P-value | HR (95% CI) | P-value | |
| Time Period | ||||
| 85–94† | 1 (reference) | -- | 1 (reference) | -- |
| 95–99 | 0.94 (0.51–1.73) | 0.84 | 1.03 (0.53–2.01) | 0.94 |
| 00–04 | 0.51 (0.27–0.95) | 0.03 | 0.58 (0.29–1.16) | 0.13 |
| 05–09 | 0.66 (34–1.28) | 0.22 | 0.80 (0.38–1.71) | 0.57 |
|
| ||||
| Age, years | 1.00 (0.99–1.01) | 0.60 | 1.00 (0.99–1.01) | 0.99 |
|
| ||||
| Sex (female vs male) | 0.96 (0.62–1.46) | 0.84 | ||
|
| ||||
| Race | ||||
| White | 1 (reference) | -- | 1 (reference) | -- |
| Black | 1.06 (0.51–2.20) | 0.88 | 0.97 (0.45–2.08) | 0.95 |
| Other | 0.29 (0.07–1.20) | 0.09 | 0.15 (0.02–1.07) | 0.07 |
|
| ||||
| Diagnosis | ||||
| GPA | 1 (reference) | -- | ||
| MPA | 1.43 (0.84–2.45) | 0.20 | ||
| RLV | 1.21 (0.61–2.41) | 0.58 | ||
|
| ||||
| ANCA (MPO/P vs PR3/C) | 0.95 (0.62–1.45) | 0.80 | 0.92 (0.57–1.47) | 0.71 |
|
| ||||
| Organ Involvement | ||||
| Lung | 1.23 (0.80–1.89) | 0.34 | ||
| Joint | 0.83 (0.54–1.27) | 0.39 | ||
| Upper respiratory | 0.81 (0.52–1.26) | 0.34 | ||
| Skin | 1.06 (0.65–1.72) | 0.81 | ||
| Gastrointestinal | 0.91 (0.44–1.89) | 0.81 | ||
| Neurologic | 1.10 (0.55–2.19) | 0.79 | ||
| Muscle | 0.70 (0.17–2.83) | 0.61 | ||
|
| ||||
| Duration of disease prior to biopsy, months | 1.00 (0.99–1.00) | 0.47 | ||
|
| ||||
| Serum creatinine, mg/dL | 1.12 (1.06–1.19) | < 0.001 | 1.11 (1.04–1.18) | 0.002 |
|
| ||||
| Site (community vs tertiary) | 1.46 (0.96–2.24) | 0.087 | 1.01 (0.60–1.70) | 0.96 |
|
| ||||
| Used plasma exchange | 1.17 (0.71–1.92) | 0.54 | ||
|
| ||||
| Duration of cyclophosphamide, months | 0.98 (0.93–1.02) | 0.27 | 0.96 (0.92–1.01) | 0.14 |
|
| ||||
| Occurrence of relapse | 0.93 (0.44–1.94) | 0.84 | 0.92 (0.42–2.05) | 0.84 |
The effects are expressed as hazards ratio (HR) for ESRD or death in 5 years.
*
Multivariable model included variables with p < 0.10 in univariate analysis along with pre-specified variables of interest (time period, age, ANCA type, serum creatinine, cyclophosphamide, and relapse).
†
There were only 5 patients in 85–89 group so these patients were combined with 90–94 group.
ANCA, anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody. GPA, granulomatosis with polyangiitis. MPA, microscopic polyangiitis. MPO/P, myeloperoxidase antibody and/or perinuclear pattern. PR3/C, proteinase 3 antibody and/or cytoplasmic pattern. RLV, renal-limited vasculitis.