Table 3. Sensitivity analyses: ICERs for NASH Screening strategy versus No Screening strategy.
| Parameter | Quality-adjusted ICER ($/QALY) | Non-quality-adjusted ICER ($/LY) |
|---|---|---|
| Base case | Dominated | $17,985 |
| Probability of false negative on ultrasound (10 %) | ||
| 0 % (low) | Dominated | $17,809 |
| 30 % (high) | Dominated | $18,487 |
| Probability of false positive on ultrasound (3.7 %) | ||
| 0 % (low) | Dominated | $17,825 |
| 10 % (high) | Dominated | $18,259 |
| Probability of abnormal liver function tests in patients with NASH (21 %) | ||
| 0 % (low) | Dominated | $20,198 |
| 50 % (high) | Dominated | $9870 |
| Relative risk of histological improvement—pioglitazone (1.38) | ||
| 1.01 (low) | Dominated | $1,787,148 |
| 1.89 (high) | $329,756 | $9606 |
| Annual treatment non-adherence rate (27.5 %) | ||
| 0 % (low) | Dominated | $13,405 |
| 60 % (high) | Dominated | $39,544 |
| Adherence to biopsy (100 %) | ||
| 25 % (low) | Dominated | $43,936 |
| 50 % (low) | Dominated | $26,522 |
| Probability of mortality due to liver biopsy (0.01 %) | ||
| 0 % (low) | Dominated | $17,637 |
| 0.1 % (high) | Dominated | $21,900 |
| 0.3 % (high) | Dominated | $43,113 |
| Probability of major complications due to biopsy (0.5 %) | ||
| 0 % (low) | Dominated | $17,776 |
| 2.5 % (high) | Dominated | $18,821 |
| 5 % (high) | Dominated | $19,867 |
| Probability of developing cirrhosis in lifetime for NASH patients (20 %) | ||
| 10 % (low) | Dominated | $49,033 |
| 30 % (high) | $345,378 | $9891 |
| Annual probability of decompensating (5.8 %) | ||
| 1 % (low) | Dominated | $31,068 |
| 10 % (high) | Dominated | $14,187 |
| Annual mortality of individuals with compensated cirrhosis (2 %) | ||
| 0 % (low) | Dominated | $25,113 |
| 5 % (high) | Dominated | $14,116 |
| 10 % (high) | $380,619 | $11,486 |
| Annual mortality of individuals with decompensated cirrhosis (13 %) | ||
| 5 % (low) | Dominated | $21,907 |
| 10 % (low) | Dominated | $18,849 |
| 40 % (high) | Dominated | $15,878 |
| Cost of decompensated cirrhosis | ||
| 50 % of baseline | Dominated | $19,813 |
| 200 % of baseline | Dominated | $14,328 |
| Cost of screening (ultrasound and biopsy) | ||
| 50 % of baseline | Dominated | $13,802 |
| 200 % of baseline | Dominated | $26,351 |
| Cost of medical intervention | ||
| 50 % of baseline | Dominated | $11,758 |
| 300 % of baseline | Dominated | $42,895 |
| Disutility due to pioglitazone | ||
| 0 % of baseline | $42,134 | – |
| 50 % of baseline | $187,054 | – |
Base-case values are in parentheses