Fig. 1. Production loss propagation.

(A) Basic setup of the study. Production reductions in the sectors of agriculture and fishing, mining and quarrying, and construction due to heat stress (measured in USD at day level) are computed for tropical countries (shaded in red). These first-order losses can induce production reductions in other regions and sectors (higher-order losses) through linkages in the global supply network. The cascading of production losses is simulated by use of the model Acclimate. (B) Schematic illustration of the model Acclimate. Production losses are passed on from one production site to another (or a consumption site) through demand and supply relations. Storage, transport time, and the possibility of demand redistribution can buffer the propagation. (C) Perfect complementarity as main nonlinearity of loss propagation. Production in regional sector ir is limited by the strongest relative failure of its suppliers (here, js and ku with j ≠ k).