Table 2.

Validation of the model for predicting future suppression by 6 months since start of treatment given observations up to a specified visit.

	2-month visit	3-month visit	4-month visit
Number patientsa	1927	1127	698
Observed suppressed	81%	69%	51%
Predicted suppressed	80%	67%	51%
Sensitivity [95% CI]	86% [84%, 88%]	81% [79%, 84%]	80% [76%, 85%]
Specificity [95% CI]	46% [41%, 51%]	63% [58%, 68%]	79% [75%, 83%]
PPV [95% CI]	87% [85%, 89%]	83% [80%, 86%]	80% [76%, 84%]
NPV [95% CI]	44% [39%, 49%]	60% [55%, 65%]	79% [75%, 84%]
LR+ [95% CI]	1.60 [1.45, 1.76]	2.21 [1.92, 2.55]	3.86 [3.12, 4.78]
LR− [95% CI]	0.30 [0.26, 0.36]	0.30 [0.25, 0.35]	0.25 [0.20, 0.31]
DOR [95% CI]	5.25 [4.09, 6.74]	7.49 [5.65, 9.93]	15.60 [10.77, 22.56]

^aNumber of patients not suppressed at the specified visit and with at least one future measurement.

CI, confidence interval; DOR, diagnostic odds-ratio; LR−, likelihood ratio of a negative result; LR+, likelihood ratio of a positive result; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value.