Table 3. Within initiated treatment cycle live-birth rates and cumulative live-birth rate across all cycles in 153,360 women, undergoing 250,175 cycles of IVF using their own oocytes, stratified by age at first ovarian stimulation cycle.
| Cycle number | N Cycles | N live-births | Live-birth rate within each cycle % (95%CI) | Cumulative live-birth across all cycles using different estimates % (95%CI) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Optimal estimatea | Previous oocyte yield-adjusted estimateb | Prognostic-adjusted estimatec | Conservative estimated | ||||
| Aged less than 40 years | |||||||
| 1st | 133,379 | 43,019 | 32.3 (32.0, 32.5) | 32.3 (32.0, 32.5) | 32.3 (32.0, 32.5) | 32.3 (32.0, 32.5) | 32.3 (32.0, 32.5) |
| 2nd | 53,568 | 14,532 | 27.1 (26.8, 27.5) | 50.6 (50.3, 50.9) | 50.7 (50.4, 51.1) | 48.7 (48.4, 49.0) | 44.3 (44.0, 44.5) |
| 3rd | 19,719 | 4,793 | 24.3 (23.7, 24.9) | 62.6 (62.3, 63.0) | 62.7 (62.3, 63.1) | 58.0 (57.7, 58.4) | 48.6 (48.4, 48.9) |
| 4th | 6,641 | 1,419 | 21.4 (20.4, 22.4) | 70.6 (70.1, 71.1) | 70.5 (70.1, 71.0) | 63.3 (62.9, 63.7) | 50.1 (49.8, 50.3) |
| 5th | 2,357 | 449 | 19.0 (17.5, 20.6) | 76.2 (75.6, 76.8) | 76.0 (75.4, 76.6) | 66.4 (66.0, 66.9) | 50.6 (50.3, 50.8) |
| 6th | 882 | 150 | 17.0 (14.5, 19.5) | 80.3 (79.5, 81.0) | 80.1 (79.3, 80.8) | 68.4 (67.8, 68.9) | 50.7 (50.5, 51.0) |
| 7th | 335 | 58 | 17.3 (13.3, 21.4) | 83.7 (82.7, 84.7) | 83.4 (82.4, 84.4) | 69.8 (69.1, 70.4) | 50.8 (50.5, 51.1) |
| 8th | 131 | 25 | 19.1 (12.4, 25.8) | 86.8 (85.4, 88.2) | 86.5 (85.1, 87.9) | 70.9 (70.1, 71.6) | 50.9 (50.6, 51.1) |
| 9th | 51 | 10 | 19.6 (8.7, 30.5) | 89.4 (87.6, 91.2) | 88.8 (87.2, 90.3) | 71.6 (70.8, 72.5) | 50.9 (50.6, 51.2) |
| Aged 40 to 42 years | |||||||
| 1st | 15,561 | 1,914 | 12.3 (11.8, 12.8) | 12.3 (11.8, 12.8) | 12.3 (11.8, 12.8) | 12.3 (11.8, 12.8) | 12.3 (11.8, 12.8) |
| 2nd | 6,671 | 671 | 10.1 (9.3, 10.8) | 21.1 (20.3, 21.9) | 20.8 (20.0, 21.6) | 19.8 (19.1, 20.6) | 16.8 (16.3, 17.4) |
| 3rd | 2,579 | 223 | 8.6 (7.6, 9.7) | 27.9 (26.8, 29.1) | 27.6 (26.5, 28.7) | 24.7 (23.8, 25.6) | 18.5 (17.8, 19.1) |
| 4th | 884 | 69 | 7.8 (6.0, 9.6) | 33.6 (31.9, 35.2) | 33.0 (31.4, 34.7) | 28.0 (26.9, 29.2) | 19.0 (18.4, 19.6) |
| 5th | 301 | 16 | 5.3 (2.8, 7.9) | 37.4 (34.8, 39.4) | 36.5 (34.3, 38.8) | 29.7 (28.3, 31.1) | 19.1 (18.5, 19.8) |
| 6th | 130 | 9 | 6.9 (2.6, 11.3) | 41.5 (38.0, 44.9) | 40.5 (37.3, 43.8) | 31.5 (29.7, 33.3) | 19.2 (18.6, 19.8) |
| 7th | 60 | 2 | 3.3† | 43.4 (39.1, 47.7) | 42.4 (38.4, 46.3) | 32.2 (30.2, 34.2) | 19.2 (18.6, 19.9) |
| 8th | 36 | 1 | 2.8† | 45.0 (39.8, 50.1) | 43.4 (39.1, 47.6) | 32.7 (30.5, 34.9) | 19.2 (18.6, 19.9) |
| 9th | 20 | 0 | 0.0† | 45.0 (39.8, 50.1) | 43.4 (39.1, 47.6) | 32.7 (30.5, 34.9) | 19.2 (18.6, 19.9) |
| Aged more than 42 years | |||||||
| 1st | 4,420 | 164 | 3.7 (3.2, 4.3) | 3.7 (3.2, 4.3) | 3.7 (3.2, 4.3) | 3.7 (3.2, 4.3) | 3.7(3.2, 4.3) |
| 2nd | 1,578 | 52 | 3.3 (2.4, 4.2) | 6.9 (5.9, 7.9) | 6.9 (5.9, 7.9) | 6.3 (5.4, 7.2) | 4.9 (4.3, 5.6) |
| 3rd | 509 | 17 | 3.3 (1.8, 4.9) | 10.0 (8.2, 11.7) | 9.8 (8.1, 11.5) | 8.3 (7.1, 9.6) | 5.4 (4.7, 6.0) |
| 4th | 160 | 2 | 1.3† | 11.1 (8.8, 13.4) | 10.1 (8.5, 11.8) | 8.9 (7.4, 10.5) | 5.5 (4.8, 6.2) |
| 5th | 67 | 3 | 4.5† | 15.1 (10.2, 20.0) | 14.2 (10.7, 17.7) | 10.7 (8.2, 13.2) | 5.5 (4.8, 6.2) |
| 6th | 24 | 0 | 0.0† | 15.1 (10.2, 20.0) | 14.2 (10.7, 17.7) | 10.7 (8.2, 13.2) | 5.6 (4.9, 6.3) |
| 7th | 10 | 2 | 20.0† | 32.1 (10.7, 53.5) | 22.3 (14.0, 30.5) | 15.9 (8.5, 23.2) | 5.6 (4.9, 6.3) |
| 8th | 5 | 0 | 0.0† | 32.1 (10.7, 53.5) | 22.3 (14.0, 30.5) | 15.9 (8.5, 23.2) | 5.6 (4.9, 6.3) |
| 9th | 4 | 0 | 0.0† | 32.1 (10.7, 53.5) | 22.3 (14.0, 30.5) | 15.9 (8.5, 23.2) | 5.6 (4.9, 6.3) |
The optimal estimate assumes that the cumulative live-birth rate in women who discontinue IVF without a live-birth, if they had continued, would have been equal to the rate in women who continued to have further IVF. That is it assumes that 0% of women who discontinued IVF did so because of poor prognosis that would have affected their live-birth success had they continued.
The previous oocyte yeild-adjusted estimate assumes that the cumulative live-birth rate in women who discontinued IVF, if they had continued, would have been equal to the rate in women who had the same oocyte yield in the immediately previous ovarian stimulation treatment, and who continued to have further IVF. These results suggested approximately 3% of women who discontinued did so because of poor prognosis and would have had a live-birth rate of zero, had they continued.
The prognostic-adjusted estimate assumes that 30% of women who discontinued IVF did so because of poor prognosis and would have had a live-birth rate of zero, had they continued.
The conservative estimate assumes that the cumulative live-birth rate in all women who discontinued IVF would have been zero, had they continued. That is it assumes that 100% of women who discontinued did so because of poor prognosis and would have had a live-birth rate of zero, had they continued.
Note it is not possible to calculate an age-adjusted estimate these age stratified analyses and there is too little age variation within the ages stratified groups to further adjust for age.
These are cycles for which there was fewer than six live births and for these standard errors and hence confidence intervals could not be calculated