Table 6.
ROC Statistics for Individual Predictors and Combined Predictive Probabilities for All 4 Study Outcomes
| Primary CHD Outcome | C‐Statistic (95%CI) | P Value |
|---|---|---|
| Total cohort (N=630) | ||
| UKPDS risk score (1) | 0.683 (0.594–0.772) | 0.0001 |
| LogCAC score (2) | 0.726 (0.658–0.794) | <0.0001 |
| UKPDS+logCAC scores (3) | 0.763 (0.694–0.832) | 0.020 vs (1) |
| UKPDS+logCAC+total plaque burden (4) | 0.789 (0.728–0.850) | 0.034 vs (3) |
| 4+Gensini score (5) | 0.824 (0.768–0.881) | 0.021 vs (4) |
| 5+segment involvement score (6) | 0.832 (0.778–0.886) | 0.35 vs (5) |
| 6+maximal plaque burden (7) | 0.836 (0.777–0.894) | 0.69 vs (6); 0.27 vs (5) |
| 7+maximal exercise stress (METS)a | 0.839 (0.769–0.909) | 0.48 vs (5) |
| Patients with plaque (N=500) | ||
| UKPDS risk score (8) | 0.655 (0.562–0.747) | 0.001 |
| LogCAC score (9) | 0.653 (0.570–0.736) | 0.001 |
| UKPDS+logCAC score (10) | 0.697 (0.610–0.784) | 0.177 vs (8) |
| UKPDS+plaque burden (11) | 0.743 (0.670–0.816) | 0.114 vs (8) |
| UKPDS+Gensini score (12) | 0.765 (0.725–0.801) | 0.001 vs (8) |
| UKPDS+plaque burden+mild plaque calcification (13) | 0.781 (0.742–0.817) | 0.002 vs (11) |
| UKPDS+Gensini+mild plaque calcification (14) | 0.786 (0.748–0.821) | 0.375 vs (12) |
| Noncoronary outcomes (N=630) | ||
| UKPDS CHD risk score (15) | 0.627 (0.564–0.691) | <0.0001 |
| 15+log CAC score (16) | 0.650 (0.591–0.709) | 0.184 vs (15) |
| 16+total coronary plaque burden | 0.650 (0.591–0.701) | 0.18 vs (15) |
| 15+albuminuria | 0.628 (0.563–0.692) | 0.96 vs (15) |
| 15+retinopathy (17) | 0.715 (0.655–0.775) | 0.0009 vs (15) |
| 17+maximal exercise stress (METS)a | 0.762 (0.703–0.822) | 0.018 vs (17) |
| Macrovascular outcomes (N=630) | ||
| UKPDS risk score (18) | 0.658 (0.584–0.732) | <0.0001 |
| UKPDS+logCAC score (19) | 0.745 (0.690–0.801) | 0.002 vs (18) |
| 18+prior CVA/TIA (20) | 0.756 (0.700–0.812) | 0.34 vs (19) |
| 20+plaque burden | 0.757 (0.702–0.813) | 0.202 vs (19) |
| 20+maximal exercise stress (METS)a | 0.766 (0.707–0.826) | 0.092 vs (19) |
| Microvascular outcomes (N=630) | ||
| UKPDS CHD risk score (21) | 0.669 (0.597–0.740) | <0.0001 |
| 21+logCAC | 0.669 (0.598–0.741) | 0.86 vs (21) |
| 21+retinopathy (22) | 0.769 (0.701–0.838) | 0.001 vs (21) |
| 22+albuminuria | 0.772 (0.703–0.841) | 0.36 vs (22) |
| 22+maximal stress (METS)a | 0.785 (0.712–0.858) | 0.018 vs (22) |
CAC indicates coronary artery calcium; CHD, coronary artery disease; CVA, cerebrovascular accident; METS, metabolic equivalents; ROC, receiver operator characteristic; TIA, transient ischemic attack; UKPDS, United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study.
a
For ROC curves including maximal exercise stress N=526.