Table 4.
Predictive discrimination of four models at different cut off values of cardiovascular risk thresholds over 2.5-year of follow-up
| Cut-off values | 5 % | 10 % | 20 % | 30 % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Women | |||||
| Sensitivity (95 % CI) | |||||
| Model 1 | 87.1 (70.2–96.4) | 71.0 (52.0–85.8) | 54.8 (36.0–72.7) | 41.9 (24.5–60.9) | |
| Model 2 | 90.3 (74.2–98.0) | 67.7 (48.6–83.3) | 48.4 (30.2–66.9) | 35.5 (19.2–54.6) | |
| Model 3 | 87.1 (70.2–96.4) | 71.0 (52.0–85.8) | 45.2 (27.3–64.0) | 29.0 (14.2–48.0) | |
| Model 4 | 83.9 (66.3–94.5) | 77.4 (58.9–90.4) | 54.8 (36.0–72.7) | 38.7 (21.8–57.8) | |
| Specificity (95 % CI) | |||||
| Model 1 | 24.7 (17.9–32.5) | 40.4 (32.4–48.8) | 57.5 (49.1–65.7) | 69.9 (61.7–77.2) | |
| Model 2 | 24.8 (17.3–31.7) | 42.5 (34.3–50.9) | 53.4 (45.0–61.7) | 67.1 (58.9–74.7) | |
| Model 3 | 28.1 (21.0–36.1) | 38.4 (30.4–46.8) | 53.4 (45.0–61.7) | 65.8 (57.5–73.4) | |
| Model 4 | 29.5 (22.2–37.6) | 43.2 (35.0–51.6) | 61.0 (52.5–68.9) | 70.5 (62.5–77.8) | |
| Positive predictive value (95 % CI) | |||||
| Model 1 | 19.7 (13.4–27.4) | 20.2 (13.1–28.9) | 21.5 (13.1–32.2) | 22.8 (12.7–35.8) | |
| Model 2 | 20.1 (13.8–27.8) | 20.2 (12.8–28.9) | 18.1 (10.5–28.0) | 18.6 (9.7–30.9) | |
| Model 3 | 20.5 (13.9–28.3) | 19.6 (12.7–28.2) | 17.1 (9.7–27.0) | 15.3 (7.2–27.0) | |
| Model 4 | 20.2 (13.6–28.1) | 22.4 (14.9–31.5) | 23.0 (14.0–34.2) | 21.8 (11.8–35.0) | |
| Negative predictive value (95 % CI) | |||||
| Model 1 | 90.0 (76.3–97.2) | 86.8 (76.4–93.8) | 85.7 (77.2–92.0) | 85.0 (77.3–90.9) | |
| Model 2 | 92.1 (78.6–98.3) | 86.1 (75.9–93.1) | 83.0 (73.8–89.9) | 83.1 (75.0–89.3) | |
| Model 3 | 91.1 (78.8–97.5) | 86.2 (75.3–93.5) | 82.1 (72.9–89.2) | 81.4 (73.1–87.9) | |
| Model 4 | 89.6 (77.3–96.5) | 90.0 (80.5–95.9) | 86.4 (78.2–92.4) | 84.4 (76.8–90.4) | |
| Men | |||||
| Sensitivity (95 % CI) | |||||
| Model 1 | 65.5 (45.7–82.1) | 51.7 (32.5–70.6) | 34.5 (17.9–54.3) | 24.1 (10.3–43.5) | |
| Model 2 | 69.0 (49.2–84.7) | 51.7 (32.5–70.6) | 31.0 (15.3–50.8) | 20.7 (8.0–39.7) | |
| Model 3 | 69.0 (49.2–84.7) | 58.6 (38.9–76.5) | 24.1 (10.3–43.5) | 20.7 (8.0–39.7) | |
| Model 4 | 72.4 (32.1–43.9) | 51.7 (32.5–70.6) | 24.1 (10.3–43.5) | 24.1 (10.3–43.5) | |
| Specificity (95 % CI) | |||||
| Model 1 | 44.1 (45.7–82.1) | 58.8 (52.7–64.7) | 73.2 (67.5–78.3) | 79.8 (74.5–84.4) | |
| Model 2 | 41.5 (35.6–47.6) | 54.0 (47.9–60.1) | 72.1 (66.3–77.3) | 82.4 (77.3–86.7) | |
| Model 3 | 38.6 (32.8–44.7) | 53.7 (47.6–59.7) | 73.2 (67.5–78.3) | 83.1 (78.1–87.3) | |
| Model 4 | 37.9 (32.1–43.9) | 52.9 (46.8–59.0) | 72.1 (66.3–77.3) | 81.3 (76.1–85.7) | |
| Positive predictive value (95 % CI) | |||||
| Model 1 | 11.1 (6.8–16.8) | 11.8 (6.8–18.7) | 12.0 (5.9–21.0) | 11.3 (4.7–21.9) | |
| Model 2 | 11.2 (7.0–16.7) | 10.7 (6.1–17.1) | 10.6 (5.0–19.2) | 11.1 (4.2–22.6) | |
| Model 3 | 10.7 (6.7–16.0) | 11.9 (7.1–18.4) | 8.8 (3.6–17.2) | 11.5 (4.4–23.4) | |
| Model 4 | 11.1 (7.0–16.4) | 9.9 (5.5–16.0) | 8.4 (3.5–16.6) | 12.1 (5.0–23.3) | |
| Negative predictive value (95 % CI) | |||||
| Model 1 | 92.3 (86.3–96.2) | 92.0 (86.9–95.5) | 91.3 (86.7–94.7) | 90.8 (86.4–94.1) | |
| Model 2 | 92.6 (86.5–96.6) | 91.3 (85.8–95.2) | 90.7 (86.1–94.3) | 90.7 (86.4–94.0) | |
| Model 3 | 92.1 (85.5–96.3) | 92.4 (87.1–96.0) | 90.0 (85.3–93.7) | 90.8 (86.5–94.1) | |
| Model 4 | 92.8 (86.3–96.8) | 90.6 (84.9–94.6) | 89.9 (85.1–93.6) | 90.9 (86.6–94.2) | |
Abbreviations: CI confidence interval; Model 1, Laboratory based model same as Framingham Risk Score; Model 2, Non laboratory based model; Model 3, WHO/ISH with Cholesterol; Model 4, WHO/ISH without Cholesterol