Table 4.

Probability of toxicity estimates based on 500 simulated datasets containing N = 10 and N = 30 patients receiving one of five dose groups d₁ . . . d₅ over six cycles comparing estimates based on Model 3 to estimates based on Models 6 and 7. Results presented for α = 1, β = 0.5 and ρ = 0.8 and with patients distributed equally on the five dose levels.

	N = 10		N = 30
	Estimate(Bias)	ESD1	Estimate(Bias)	ESD1
First cycle
Markov Model 3
d 1	0.019 (−0.001)	0.011	0.020 (< 0.001)	0.008
d 2	0.047 (−0.003)	0.028	0.049 (−0.001)	0.020
d 3	0.093 (−0.007)	0.053	0.098 (−0.002)	0.038
d 4	0.148 (−0.012)	0.081	0.156 (−0.004)	0.059
d 5	0.21 (−0.02)	0.109	0.223 (−0.007)	0.081
Binary Model 6
d 1	0.018 (−0.002)	0.012	0.019 (−0.001)	0.008
d 2	0.045 (−0.005)	0.030	0.047 (−0.003)	0.021
d 3	0.090 (−0.010)	0.057	0.093 (−0.007)	0.040
d 4	0.143 (−0.017)	0.086	0.149 (−0.011)	0.062
d 5	0.203 (−0.027)	0.114	0.213 (−0.017)	0.085
Any cycle
Markov Model 3
d 1	0.038 (−0.004)	0.021	0.042 (−0.001)	0.016
d 2	0.105 (−0.011)	0.050	0.113 (−0.002)	0.038
d 3	0.234 (−0.021)	0.092	0.250 (−0.005)	0.068
d 4	0.405 (−0.033)	0.132	0.428 (−0.010)	0.095
d 5	0.598 (−0.046)	0.152	0.626 (−0.019)	0.109
Binary Model 7
d 1	0.041 (−0.001)	0.022	0.042 (< 0.001)	0.014
d 2	0.111 (−0.004)	0.055	0.114 (−0.001)	0.035
d 3	0.241 (−0.014)	0.107	0.251 (−0.004)	0.070
d 4	0.407 (−0.032)	0.153	0.428 (−0.011)	0.102
d 5	0.590 (−0.055)	0.176	0.624 (−0.02)	0.115

¹ESD is empirical SD of the 500 estimates