Table 2.
10‐Year CVD Risk (%) for Different Risk Factor Profiles With and Without Lifestyle Interventions With 95% Credible Intervals
| Risk Profile | 10‐Year CVD Risk (%) With Intervention | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | Group Therapy for Smoking | MED Diet | Walking | Yoga | |||
| BC | SC | ||||||
| 1. 50‐yr‐old nonsmoking woman, SBP 120 mm Hg, not treated for hypertension, TC 160 mg/dL, HDL‐C 50 mg/dL | White | 0.9 | N/A | 0.8 (0.8, 0.9) | 0.8 (0.7, 0.8) | 0.7* (0.6, 0.8) | |
| Black | 1.4 | 1.2 (1.1, 1.3) | 1.1 (1.0, 1.2) | 1.0* (0.9, 1.1) | |||
| 2. 55‐yr‐old nonsmoking man, SBP 140 mm Hg, treated for hypertension, TC 170 mg/dL, HDL‐C 45 mg/dL | White | 7.0 | N/A | 6.4 (6.0, 6.8) | 6.2 (5.8, 6.6) | 5.5* (5.1, 6.0) | |
| Black | 12.7 | 10.0 (9.7, 10.3) | 9.7 (9.5, 9.9) | 9.3* (9.0, 9.7) | |||
| 3. 45‐yr‐old smoking man, SBP 160 mm Hg, treated for hypertension, TC 200 mg/dL, HDL‐C 40 mg/dL | White | 12.2 | 11.8 (11.6, 12.0) | 5.0† | 11.0 (10.1, 12.0) | 10.6 (9.8, 11.5) | 9.3* (8.4, 10.2) |
| Black | 18.2 | 17.8 (17.6, 17.9) | 9.4† | 14.5 (14.1, 14.9) | 14.1 (13.8, 14.4) | 13.7* (13.2, 13.7) | |
| 4. 70‐yr‐old smoking woman, SBP 155 mm Hg, not treated for hypertension, TC 145 mg/dL, HDL‐C 70 mg/dL | White | 18.6 | 18.3 (18.1, 18.4) | 12.1† | 18.0 (18.4, 17.6) | 17.6 (17.2, 18.0) | 17.0* (16.3, 17.6) |
| Black | 23.9 | 23.3 (23.1, 23.5) | 13.3† | 22.5 (21.9, 23.1) | 22.5 (21.3, 23.6) | 20.5* (19.1, 22.0) | |
| 5. 65‐yr‐old nonsmoking man, SBP 180 mm Hg, treated for hypertension, TC 200 mg/dL, HDL‐C 60 mg/dL | White | 23.2 | N/A | 22.1 (21.5, 22.8) | 21.7 (21.0, 22.4) | 20.5* (19.6, 21.5) | |
| Black | 27.3 | 22.1 (21.6, 22.6) | 21.6 (21.2, 22.0) | 21.0* (20.4, 21.7) | |||
| 6. 50‐yr‐old smoking man, SBP 170 mm Hg, treated for hypertension, TC 260 mg/dL, HDL‐C 35 mg/dL | White | 28.2 | 27.5 (27.2, 27.8) | 14.4† | 26.2 (24.4, 28.4) | 25.3 (24.1, 26.6) | 23.2* (21.7, 24.8) |
| Black | 28.1 | 27.5 (27.2, 27.7) | 15.0† | 22.8 (22.2, 23.4) | 22.1 (21.8, 22.5) | 21.6* (20.9, 22.3) | |
BC indicates base‐case; CVD, cardiovascular disease; HDL‐C, high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol; MED, Mediterranean; N/A, not applicable; SBP, systolic blood pressure; SC, successful cessation; TC, total cholesterol.
Numbers with * represent the most effective CVD risk reduction strategy in the base‐case intention‐to‐treat analysis.
Numbers with † represent the most effective strategy assuming successful cessation of smoking.