Table 2.

Model coefficients and risk scores

	Clinical model		EMR model
Covariates	Hazard ratio* (95% CI)	Points	Hazard ratio* (95% CI)	Points
Age
65–69	REF	0	REF	0
70–74	0.87 (0.53, 1.42)		0.91 (0.56, 1.49)
75–79	1.09 (0.69, 1.72)		1.18 (0.74, 1.86)	1
80–84	1.16 (0.73, 1.87)	1	1.31 (0.82, 2.11)
85–89	1.78 (1.11, 2.87)	2	2.19 (1.35, 3.54)	3
90+	1.77 (1.01, 3.10)		2.43 (1.40, 4.20)
Gender
Male	1.75 (1.40, 2.19)	2	1.73 (1.38, 2.17)	2
Comorbidity
COPD	1.59 (1.23, 2.06)	2	2.03 (1.57, 2.62)	3
CHF	1.61 (1.17, 2.19)	2	1.91 (1.40, 2.60)	2
Pneumonia	1.94 (1.56, 2.41)	2	NI†	NI
Home oxygen use in prior 24 months	1.68 (1.02, 2.76)	2	NI	NI
Functional
Any difficulty dressing yourself	1.42 (1.04, 1.93)	1	NA‡	NA
Difficulty walking a half- mile
Some difficulty	1.33 (0.98, 1.80)	1	NA	NA
Much difficulty/cannot do	1.44 (1.08, 1.91)		NA	NA
Behavioral
History of alcohol- related aggressive behavior	1.69 (1.12, 2.54)	2	NA	NA
Body mass index
<18.5	1.39 (0.76, 2.54)	1	1.41 (0.77, 2.60)	1
18.5 to <25	REF	0	REF	0
25 to <30	0.75 (0.58, 0.95)	−1	0.77 (0.60, 0.98)	−1
30 to <35	0.69 (0.49, 0.97)		0.78 (0.56, 1.09)
≥35	0.45 (0.25, 0.81)	−3	0.54 (0.30, 0.96)	−2
Pharmacy
Inhaled corticosteroid	1.49 (1.05, 2.12)	1	1.75 (1.21, 2.51)	2
Oral corticosteroid	1.87 (1.32, 2.66)	2	2.22 (1.56, 3.15)	3
C-index (95% CI) Development cohort	0.72 (0.70, 0.75)	0.72 (0.69, 0.75)	0.69 (0.67, 0.72)	0.69 (0.66, 0.72)
C-index (95% CI) Validation cohort	0.70 (0.66, 0.73)	0.69 (0.66, 0.73)	0.69 (0.66, 0.73)	0.69 (0.66, 0.73)

^*Estimate from the Fine and Gray model, also known as a proportional sub-distribution hazards model (see Supplemental Methods)

^†NI = Not included in final model

^‡NA = Not applicable (i.e. variable not expected to be available in EMR)