Table A1b.

Model goodness-of-fit statistics for prediction of FL risk.

Model	Exposure period (Years)	Scaling factor (km)	Deviance/df	AIC
Negative binomial	1989–1993	4	1.05	4359.3
Negative binomial	1989–1993	8	1.05	4364.1
Negative binomial	1989–1993	16	1.05	4358.4
Negative binomial	1989–1993	24	1.05	4364.0
Negative binomial	1989–1998	4	1.06	4369.7
Negative binomial	1989–1998	8	1.06	4357.1
Negative binomial	1989–1998	16	1.05	4362.2
Negative binomial	1989–1998	24	1.05	4363.9
Negative binomial	1994–1998	4	1.06	4376.5
Negative binomial	1994–1998	8	1.06	4374.7
Negative binomial	1994–1998	16	1.05	4373.6
Negative binomial	1994–1998	24	1.05	4347.9
Negative binomial	1994–2003	4	1.06	4382.6
Negative binomial	1994–2003	8	1.06	4381.3
Negative binomial	1994–2003	16	1.06	4373.7
Negative binomial	1994–2003	24	1.05	4377.2
Poisson	1989–1993	4	1.12	4362.8
Poisson	1989–1993	8	1.12	4367.9
Poisson	1989–1993	16	1.12	4361.5
Poisson	1989–1993	24	1.12	4367.5
Poisson	1989–1998	4	1.13	4373.7
Poisson	1989–1998	8	1.12	4359.7
Poisson	1989–1998	16	1.12	4365.8
Poisson	1989–1998	24	1.12	4367.5
Poisson	1994–1998	4	1.13	4380.9
Poisson	1994–1998	8	1.13	4379.1
Poisson	1994–1998	16	1.13	4378.5
Poisson	1994–1998	24	1.11	4350.1
Poisson	1994–2003	4	1.14	4387.7
Poisson	1994–2003	8	1.13	4385.6
Poisson	1994–2003	16	1.13	4377.8
Poisson	1994–2003	24	1.13	4382.2