Table 1.
Model parameter values and ranges
| Model parameters | Base case value (range) | References |
|---|---|---|
| Model assumptions | ||
| Discount rate cost/outcomes | 0.03 (0–0.06) | (14) |
| Time horizon | Lifetime | – |
| Perspective | Italian NHS | – |
| Cohort characteristic | ||
| Age | 55 (45–65) | (2) |
| SOF/RBV efficacy | ||
| Probability of SVR with SOF/RBV treatment | 0.700 (0.525–0.875) | (8) |
| Pretransplant probabilities (monthly probability) | ||
| Probability of OLT | 0.0492 (0.0369–0.0615) | (2) |
| Dropout probability for liver failure progression | 0.0017 (0.0013–0.0021) | (2,15) |
| Dropout probability for spontaneous liver improvement | 0.0021 (0.0016–0.0026) | (2,15) |
| Dropout probability from WL due to improvement SOF/RBV treatment-related in only cirrhotic patients | 0.1 (0.05–0.15) | Assumption |
| Posttransplant probabilities (monthly probability) | ||
| Probability of HCV-cirrhosis recurrence when HCV-RNA negativity at transplantation | 0.0005 (0.0004–0.0006) | Assumption |
| Probability of HCV-cirrhosis recurrence when HCV-RNA is positive at transplantation | 0.0055 (0.0041–0.0068) | (5) |
| Probability of decompensation from HCV-cirrhosis recurrence | 0.0444 (0.0333–0.0555) | (6) |
| Mortality (monthly probability) | ||
| HCV-infected cirrhotic or HCC listed for transplant | 0.0060 (0.0045–0.0075) | (2) |
| Dropout for liver failure progression | 0.7846 (0.5884–0.9807) | (15) |
| Dropout for spontaneous liver improvement | 0.0014 (0.0011–0.0018) | (15) |
| Dropout from WL due to improvement SOF/RBV treatment-related | 0.0027 (0.0020–0.0034) | (16) |
| OLT in the first 3 months | 0.0170 (0.0127–0.0212) | (3) |
| OLT-No or mild recurrence | 0.0021 (0.0009–0.0037) | Assumption |
| OLT-CC recurrence | 0.0125 (0.0094–0.0156) | (6) |
| OLT-DC recurrence | 0.0716 (0.0537–0.0895) | (6) |
| Utility weights | ||
| HCV-infected cirrhosis listed for transplant | 0.793 (0.714–0.872) | (17) |
| HCV-infected HCC listed for transplant | 0.871 (0.697–0.871) | (17) |
| Dropout for liver failure progression | 0.743 (0.669–0.817) | Assumption |
| Dropout for spontaneous liver improvement | 0.877 (0.789–0.965) | (17) |
| Dropout from WL due to improvement SOF/RBV treatment-related | 0.877 (0.789–0.965) | (17) |
| OLT-No or mild recurrence (in the first 6 months after liver transplant) | 0.852 (0.767–0.937) | (17) |
| OLT-No or mild recurrence (after the first 6 months from liver transplant) | 0.910 (0.819–1.000) | (17) |
| OLT-CC recurrence (in the first 6 months after liver transplant) | 0.852 (0.767–0.937) | (17) |
| OLT-CC recurrence (after the first 6 months from liver transplant) | 0.877 (0.789–0.965) | (17) |
| OLT DC recurrence | 0.793 (0.714–0.872) | (17) |
| Monthly cost (2014 €) | ||
| HCV-infected cirrhotic or HCC listed for transplant | €890 (668–1113) | (18) |
| Dropout from WL for liver failure progression | €1,780 (1335–2225) | Assumption |
| Dropout from WL for spontaneous liver improvement | €126 (95–158) | (20) |
| Dropout from WL due to improvement SOF/RBV treatment-related | €126 (95–158) | (20) |
| OLT (first month) | €83,530 (62648–104413) | (19) |
| OLT-No or mild recurrence (after first month from liver transplant) | €1,474 (1105–1.842) | (20–22) |
| OLT-CC recurrence (after first month from liver transplant) | €1,532 (1226–1915) | (20–22) |
| OLT-DC recurrence | €3984 (2988–4980) | (20–22) |
| Treatment costs (2014 €) | ||
| Sofosbuvir 400mg | €537 (375–696) | (23) |
| Ribavirin 1100 mg | €17 | (24) |
CC, compensated cirrhosis; DC, decompensated cirrhosis; HCV, hepatitis C virus; HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma; OLT, orthotopic liver transplant; SOF/RBV, treatment with Sofosbuvir and Ribavirin; WL, waiting list.