Table 2.

Key model outputs

	Incident cases	AIDS deaths	New HIV infections in 2030
Current care engagement (with implementation of early ART guidance)*	794 000 (95% UR 571 000–1 104 000) (reference)	689 000 (95% UR 468 000–976 000) (reference)	46 000 (95% UR 29 000–71 000) (62% reduction from current yearly incident cases†)
90-90-90 by 2020	415 000 (95% UR 289 000–588 000) (48% reduction)	280 000 (95% UR 194 000–404 000) (59% reduction)	19 000 (95% UR 12 000–30 000) (84% reduction from current yearly incident cases†)
90-90-90 by 2025‡	583 000 (95% UR 479 000–715 000) (27% reduction)	488 000 (95% UR 379 000–623 000) (29% reduction)	21 000 (95% UR 14 000–31 000) (83% reduction from current yearly incident cases†)
90-90-90 by 2030‡	709 000 (95% UR 501 000–893 000) (11% reduction)	617 000 (95% UR 406 000–789 000) (10% reduction)	24 000 (95% UR 14 000–32 000) (80% reduction from current yearly incident cases†)

*We assumed initiation of ART irrespective of CD4 count as per recent international guidance. In our sensitivity analysis, we modelled a scenario where India does not implement these recommendations and continues a policy of deferred ART initiation (at CD4≤350 cells/mm³). In this scenario, we project that 979 000 new HIV infections and 754 000 AIDS-related deaths would occur over 15 years, with 57 000 new HIV infections in 2030.

†Relative reduction compared to 120 000 yearly HIV infections currently.³¹

‡We modelled scenarios of delayed achievement of 90-90-90 targets by 5 or 10 years by assuming that improvements begin in 2020 or 2025, respectively. Model inputs to achieve these scenarios were calibrated to achieve 90-90-90 outcomes by 2025 and 2030, respectively.

ART, antiretroviral therapy; PLWH, persons living with HIV.