Table 2.
Estimates and 95% confidence intervals for quantities from 3 methods of estimating a 2‐state model for MDAa
| Complete case | Multivariate binary | Multivariate quantitative | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean sojourn time in… | |||
| No MDA | 4.06 (3.63–4.53) | 3.43 (3.09–3.81) | 2.82 (2.56–3.10) |
| MDA | 4.18 (3.65–4.79) | 3.82 (3.37–4.33) | 3.10 (2.78–3.45) |
| Expected time over 10 years in… | |||
| No MDA | 5.95 (5.69–6.25) | 5.69 (5.43–5.95) | 5.53 (5.30–5.78) |
| MDA | 4.05 (3.75–4.31) | 4.31 (4.05–4.57) | 4.47 (4.22–4.70) |
| MDA episodes lasting <1 year | 0.15 (0.12–0.17) | 0.18 (0.15–0.21) | 0.25 (0.21–0.29) |
| MDA episodes lasting ≥1 yearb | 3.90 (3.59–4.16) | 4.13 (3.88–4.40) | 4.22 (3.96–4.45) |
| First year of MDA | 1.26 (1.16–1.34) | 1.39 (1.30–1.49) | 1.61 (1.52–1.72) |
| Later years of MDA | 2.79 (2.53–3.02) | 2.92 (2.70–3.15) | 2.86 (2.63–3.07) |
| Expected number of episodes in… | |||
| No MDA | 1.97 (1.85–2.09) | 2.13 (2.00–2.26) | 2.44 (2.30–2.60) |
| MDA | 1.47 (1.35–1.59) | 1.65 (1.53–1.79) | 1.96 (1.84–2.12) |
| MDA lasting <1 year | 0.31 (0.26–0.38) | 0.38 (0.32–0.45) | 0.54 (0.46–0.64) |
| MDA lasting ≥1 year | 1.16 (1.08–1.23) | 1.27 (1.20–1.35) | 1.42 (1.36–1.50) |
| Probability of visiting at least once | |||
| MDA | 0.92 (0.89–0.94) | 0.94 (0.93–0.96) | 0.97 (0.96–0.98) |
| MDA lasting ≥1 year | 0.85 (0.82–0.87) | 0.88 (0.86–0.91) | 0.91 (0.90–0.93) |
a
Values are the estimate (95% confidence interval). MDA = minimal disease activity.
b
Episodes starting between 9–10 years that eventually lasted ≥1 years are counted as “lasting ≥1 year” for this categorization, but the time spent in them is truncated at the 10‐year point.