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. 2016 Jul 22;16:356. doi: 10.1186/s12879-016-1675-z

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© The Author(s). 2016

Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.

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Fig. 2 — Predicted risk of experiencing a case importation of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). a and b Distribution of estimated risks of importation by country based on a the risk model that used effective distance only and b model that used the effective distance as well as religion and incidence data of MERS in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Optimal threshold probability was 11.2 % for panel A and 6.9 % for panel b. c and d Receiver operator characteristic curves of predicted risk of importing MERS cases. Panel c shows the evaluation results of the risk model that used effective distance only, while d shows those of the model that used the effective distance as well as religion and incidence data of MERS in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia