Table 3.
Results of q-weeks ahead prediction using China central north weekly HFMD data from 2009 to 2010. The figures are MSEP, as given by 10 and are for the Type I–IV models, as well as the epidemic/endemic (epi/end) model 11. For each q, figures in bold are the row minimum MSEP.
| q = 1 | q = 2 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T⋆ | Type I | Type II | Type III | Type IV | Epi/End model | Type I | Type II | Type III | Type IV | Epi/End model |
| 90 | 6204 (0.93) | 1563 (0.86) | 4758 (1.00) | 1421 (0.92) | 1310 | 4837 | 1614 | 3711 | 1488 | 2736 |
| 91 | 3129 (0.88) | 2492 (0.85) | 2704 (0.95) | 3263 (0.83) | 873 | 2589 | 5453 | 2184 | 7263 | 1535 |
| 92 | 1702 (0.92) | 947 (0.81) | 1524 (0.97) | 893 (0.85) | 3900 | 2783 | 1111 | 2253 | 1087 | 3093 |
| 93 | 4161 (0.90) | 1774 (0.80) | 3523 (1.00) | 1602 (0.80) | 397 | 5255 | 3051 | 4510 | 2774 | 583 |
| 94 | 3576 (0.93) | 1071 (0.83) | 2993 (0.97) | 984 (0.85) | 1670 | 4495 | 1909 | 3768 | 1774 | 2716 |
| 95 | 5481 (0.86) | 749 (0.83) | 4288 (0.97) | 755 (0.83) | 1655 | 5693 | 1834 | 4755 | 1366 | 2174 |
| 96 | 5449 (0.88) | 2058 (0.73) | 5217 (0.98) | 2216 (0.76) | 1746 | 5321 | 3352 | 5468 | 3789 | 1811 |
| 97 | 5723 (0.88) | 1643 (0.76) | 4907 (0.97) | 1630 (0.78) | 992 | 4765 | 4118 | 4202 | 4135 | 1268 |
| 98 | 3940 (0.92) | 1757 (0.76) | 3569 (0.97) | 1813 (0.78) | 836 | 3473 | 2040 | 3110 | 2113 | 1017 |
| 99 | 3380 (0.88) | 839 (0.66) | 2895 (0.97) | 849 (0.71) | 927 | 2590 | 955 | 2237 | 971 | 1621 |
| 100 | 1390 (0.90) | 727 (0.75) | 1352 (0.95) | 815 (0.76) | 1121 | 1353 | 878 | 1244 | 1090 | 1843 |
| 101 | 853 (0.92) | 600 (64) | 831 (0.96) | 573 (0.68) | 1811 | 790 | 602 | 789 | 556 | 2106 |
| 102 | 744 (0.88) | 507 (0.69) | 729 (0.95) | 509 (0.66) | 841 | 773 | 529 | 756 | 538 | 1060 |
| 103 | 924 (0.88) | 498 (0.68) | 810 (0.90) | 512 (0.66) | 302 | - | - | - | - | - |