Table 3.
Mean prediction errors and RMSE of methods for predicting HbA1c treatment outcome
| Arm no. | Arm | Method 1 (Samtani‐SS) | Method 2 (Nathan‐SS) | Method 3 (Samtani) | Method 4 (RBC) | Method 5 (Møller) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Insulin glargine (comparator) | −1.2 (1.5) | −0.7 (1.2) | −0.9 (1.3) | −0.4 (1.2) | −0.1 (0.6) |
| 2 | Insulin detemir | −1.1 (1.4) | −0.6 (1.2) | −0.8 (1.2) | −0.5 (1.1) | −0.2 (0.7) |
| 3 | Biphasic insulin aspart | −0.4 (1.4) | −0.5 (1.4) | −0.3 (1.3) | −0.2 (1.3) | −0.1 (0.7) |
| 4 | Insulin glargine (comparator) | −1.2 (1.6) | −0.6 (1.3) | −1.0 (1.4) | −0.6 (1.2) | −0.2 (0.7) |
| 5 | Liraglutide 1.8mg + metformin + rosiglitazone | −0.4 (0.9) | −0.4 (0.9) | −0.4 (0.8) | −0.4 (0.9) | 0.1 (0.5) |
| 6 | Metformin + rosiglitazone (comparator) | −0.3 (0.9) | −0.3 (1.0) | −0.4 (0.9) | −0.3 (1.1) | 0.1 (0.7) |
| 7 | Liraglutide 1.2mg + metformin + rosiglitazone | −0.4 (0.8) | −0.4 (1.0) | −0.5 (0.8) | −0.2 (0.9) | 0.0 (0.5) |
| 8 | Liraglutide 0.6mg + metformin | −0.5 (1.1) | −0.4 (1.2) | −0.6 (1.1) | −0.3 (1.0) | −0.3 (0.7) |
| 9 | Liraglutide 1.8mg + metformin | −0.4 (1.1) | −0.5 (1.0) | −0.4 (1.0) | −0.3 (1.0) | −0.3 (0.7) |
| 10 | Glimiperide + metformin (comparator) | −0.3 (1.0) | −0.4 (1.1) | −0.3 (0.9) | −0.4 (1.1) | −0.3 (0.6) |
| 11 | Metformin | −0.4 (1.0) | −0.3 (1.2) | −0.5 (1.0) | −0.3 (1.1) | 0.0 (0.7) |
| 12 | Liraglutide 1.2 mg + metformin | −0.6 (1.0) | −0.5 (1.0) | −0.5 (1.0) | −0.5 (1.1) | −0.3 (0.8) |
| All | Overall mean prediction error (mean RMSE) | −0.61 (1.1) | −0.47 (1.1) | −0.55 (1.1) | −0.37 (1.1) | −0.13 (0.8) |
| All | Overall absolute mean prediction error | 0.61 | 0.47 | 0.55 | 0.37 | 0.15 |
Mean prediction errors and RMSE of HbA1c (%) predictions calculated as mean of individual predictions subtracted by mean of individual observations. HbA1c predictions at end of trial (26–28 weeks) were based on 12‐week data. Steady‐state predictions (Methods 1 and 2) were obtained using FPG/MPG values at 12 weeks only. Overall mean and absolute mean prediction errors are shown in bold. FPG, fasting plasma glucose; MPG, mean plasma glucose; RBC, red blood cell; RMSE, root mean square error; SS, steady state.