Table S1.

Posterior distributions of parameters estimated in spatial demographic models: long-term migration rate (m) and maximum landscape carrying capacity (maxK, in terms of population size)

Parameter	Prior	Posterior mode	Posterior HPDI 50	Posterior HPDI 90
A. punctatus log10, maxK	U[3, 5]	3.737	3.680–3.926	3.529–4.096
A. punctatus log10, m	U[−3, −0.5]	−1.001	−1.388 to −0.978	−1.666 to −0.768
A. ortonii log10, maxK	U[3, 5]	3.072	3.020–3.260	3.000–3.582
A. ortonii log10, m	U[−3, −0.5]	−2.910	−3.000 to −2.739	−2.999 to −2.349

All values are in log₁₀; note that all parameters are estimated at the spatial resolution of simulations. HPDI 50, 50% highest posterior density interval; HPDI 90, 90% highest posterior density interval.