Figure 1. Warming levels for contemporary GHG concentrations.

For each GCM and climate research centre named on the vertical axis, shown in green is global mean warming for rcp85 simulations, centred on year 2015. This is an ensemble average if multiple rcp85 simulations are available for any particular model. Associated global committed warming for year 2015 GHG concentrations are brown, utilising reported model climate sensitivities in IPCC 5^th report. Using these calculations, then presented in red is committed warming over land only, based on model estimates of land-sea temperature contrast. In orange are normalised land warmings, accounting for differences between each modelled and observed year 2015 global warming. The latter observed value is marked as the vertical dashed black line, and is from the NCEP climatology. Warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C are marked as vertical red dashed lines.