Table 1.
Speciesa | Number of years | Mean day of event [ordinal date] | Standard deviation | Δ AIC | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Null | UniForc | UniChill 1 Sept | UniChill 1 Nov | Time window | Double time window | PSR | ||||
hawthorn – Crataegus monogyna | 143 | 9 March [67.6] | 19.1 | 119.4 | 23.7 | 0.0 | 25.4 | 32.5 | 17.9 | 15.9 |
wood anemone – Anemone nemorosa | 140 | 25 March [83.8] | 13.0 | 100.3 | 11.4 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 0.0 |
sycamore – Acer pseudoplantanus | 134 | 1 April [91.0] | 13.3 | 66.2 | 7.4 | 1.9 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 0.0 | 8.2 |
horse chestnut – Aesculus hippocastanum | 142 | 4 April [93.8] | 10.4 | 94.7 | 6.6 | 0.0 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 0.3 | 12.7 |
elm – Ulmus (procera?) | 118 | 5 April [95.3] | 14.9 | 41.8 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 8.4 |
birch – Betula (pendula?) | 140 | 6 April [95.6] | 12.9 | 88.3 | 18.1 | 0.0 | 19.4 | 22.4 | 3.8 | 8.5 |
rowan – Sorbus acuparia | 138 | 6 April [96.0] | 11.4 | 153.2 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 15.1 | 42.3 | 17.4 | 17.3 |
hornbeam – Carpinus betulus | 137 | 7 April [97.5] | 15.2 | 48.5 | 7.3 | 0.0 | 3.9 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 7.5 |
lime – Tilia spp. | 140 | 13 April [102.7] | 11.6 | 125.2 | 10.7 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 24.6 | 10.5 | 13.6 |
maple – Acer (campestre?) | 96 | 19 April [108.5] | 13.4 | 38.6 | 13.8 | 7.1 | 14.3 | 11.4 | 0.0 | 7.8 |
sweet chestnut – Castanea sativa | 134 | 19 April [108.6] | 11.3 | 111.1 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 5.1 | 19.4 | 12.6 | 16.1 |
beech – Fagus sylvatica | 143 | 20 April [110.0] | 7.8 | 92.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 10.9 | 12.0 | 15.8 |
oak – Quercus spp. | 141 | 23 April [113.1] | 10.7 | 197.9 | 19.4 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 58.8 | 42.5 | 31.8 |
ash – Fraxinus excelsior | 129 | 29 April [118.7] | 11.1 | 53.4 | 0.0 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 9.1 | 9.4 | 15.2 |
Species identities follow Sparks & Carey (1995). Latin binomials in parentheses indicate records for which the species is uncertain.