Table 4.
Predicted mean waist circumference (cm) over time by age and BMI level, women and men aged 20–49 years in the United States, Mexico, England, and China
| A. USA Women | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| |||||||||
| Age: 20–29 years | Age: 30–39 years | Age: 40–49 years | |||||||
| BMI level (kg/m2) | BMI Level (kg/m2) | BMI level (kg/m2) | |||||||
|
|
|||||||||
| 25 | 30 | 35 | 25 | 30 | 35 | 25 | 30 | 35 | |
| Mexican-Americans | |||||||||
| 1988–1994 | 82.8 | 93.5 | 103.5 | 83.9 | 94.6 | 104.6 | 85.7 | 96.4 | 106.4 |
| 2007–2010 | 86.7 | 98.4 | 108.8 | 86.2 | 97.9 | 108.2 | 86.0 | 97.7 | 108.0 |
| Difference (t2007–2010–t1988–1994) | 4.0 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 1988–1994 vs 2007–2010 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p=0.608 | p=0.054 | p=0.041 |
| Non-Hispanic Whites | |||||||||
| 1998–1994 | 82.5 | 93.5 | 103.8 | 84.3 | 95.3 | 105.6 | 85.6 | 96.6 | 107.0 |
| 2007–2010 | 86.3 | 97.7 | 108.4 | 86.6 | 98.0 | 108.8 | 87.6 | 99.0 | 109.7 |
| Difference (t2007–2010–t1988–1994) | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.7 |
| 1988–1994 vs 2007–2010 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 |
| Non-Hispanic Blacks | |||||||||
| 1998–1994 | 82.0 | 93.0 | 103.4 | 84.0 | 95.0 | 105.4 | 85.7 | 96.8 | 107.2 |
| 2007–2010 | 84.6 | 96.2 | 106.8 | 84.3 | 95.9 | 106.5 | 86.6 | 98.1 | 108.8 |
| Difference (t2007–2010–t1988–1994) | 2.6 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 1988–1994 vs 2007–2010 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p=0.575 | p=0.215 | p=0.156 | p=0.136 | p=0.024 | p=0.021 |
| B. USA Men | |||||||||
| Mexican-Americans | |||||||||
| 1988–1994 | 86.8 | 98.9 | 111.0 | 89.0 | 101.2 | 113.2 | 90.5 | 102.6 | 114.6 |
| 2007–2010 | 88.2 | 100.6 | 112.3 | 89.5 | 101.9 | 113.7 | 90.9 | 103.3 | 115.0 |
| Difference (t2007–2010–t1988–1994) | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 1988–1994 vs 2007–2010 | p=0.002 | p=0.002 | p=0.05 | p=0.205 | p=0.084 | p=0.425 | p=0.395 | p=0.199 | p=0.61 |
| Non-Hispanic Whites | |||||||||
| 1998–1994 | 88.6 | 100.8 | 112.6 | 91.0 | 103.2 | 115.0 | 92.8 | 105.1 | 116.8 |
| 2007–2010 | 89.3 | 102.1 | 114.0 | 91.2 | 104.0 | 116.0 | 93.1 | 105.9 | 117.8 |
| Difference (t2007–2010–t1988–1994) | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 1988–1994 vs 2007–2010 | p=0.029 | p=0.003 | p=0.003 | p=0.554 | p=0.095 | p=0.064 | p=0.532 | p=0.041 | p=0.039 |
| Non-Hispanic Blacks | |||||||||
| 1998–1994 | 84.4 | 96.9 | 108.9 | 87.1 | 99.6 | 111.7 | 89.5 | 102.0 | 114.0 |
| 2007–2010 | 84.2 | 96.4 | 108.5 | 87.2 | 99.4 | 111.5 | 88.8 | 101.0 | 113.1 |
| Difference (t2007–2010–t1988–1994) | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.4 | 0.1 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.7 | −1.0 | −0.9 |
| 1988–1994 vs 2007–2010 | p=0.661 | p=0.299 | p=0.455 | p=0.874 | p=0.739 | p=0.79 | p=0.203 | p=0.083 | p=0.133 |
| C. England | |||||||||
| Women | |||||||||
| 1992–1993 | 78.6 | 88.5 | 97.6 | 79.7 | 89.6 | 98.7 | 80.4 | 90.3 | 99.4 |
| 2008–2009 | 80.6 | 91.0 | 100.7 | 82.0 | 92.4 | 102.2 | 82.8 | 93.2 | 103.0 |
| Difference (t2008–2009–t1992–1993) | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 3.6 |
| 1992–1993vs 2008–2009 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 |
| Men | |||||||||
| 1992–1993 | 88.2 | 99.6 | 110.4 | 90.0 | 101.3 | 112.2 | 91.4 | 102.8 | 113.6 |
| 2008–2009 | 88.2 | 99.7 | 111.3 | 90.5 | 102.0 | 113.7 | 92.0 | 103.5 | 115.1 |
| Difference (t2008–2009–t1992–1993) | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| 1992–1993vs 2008–2009 | P=0.919 | P=0.812 | P=0.076 | P=0.009 | P=0.004 | P=0.001 | P=0.01 | P=0.003 | P=0.001 |
| D. Mexico† | |||||||||
| Women | |||||||||
| 1999 | 76.6 | 85.8 | 94.4 | 77.9 | 87.0 | 95.7 | 79.0 | 88.2 | 96.8 |
| 2012 | 83.2 | 93.6 | 103.6 | 83.7 | 94.1 | 104.0 | 84.4 | 94.8 | 104.8 |
| Difference (t2012-t1999) | 6.6 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 8.0 |
| 1999 vs 2012 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 |
| E. China | |||||||||
| Age: 20–29 years | Age: 30–39 years | Age: 40–49 years | |||||||
| BMI level (kg/m2) | BMI level (kg/m2) | BMI level (kg/m2) | |||||||
| 25 | 28 | 25 | 28 | 25 | 28 | ||||
| Women | |||||||||
| 1993 | 78.7 | 85.1 | 79.6 | 86.0 | 81.0 | 87.4 | |||
| 2011 | 83.3 | 88.9 | 82.9 | 88.5 | 83.8 | 89.4 | |||
| Difference (t2011–t1993) | 4.6 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.0 | |||
| 1993 vs 2011 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | |||
| Men | |||||||||
| 1993 | 82.5 | 90.9 | 83.4 | 91.7 | 84.2 | 92.5 | |||
| 2011 | 87.4 | 94.2 | 88.5 | 95.2 | 89.0 | 95.7 | |||
| Difference (t2011–t1993) | 4.8 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.2 | |||
| 1993 vs 2011 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | p<0.001 | |||
Models stratified by country, and by sex within country. In the US, models also separately run by race/ethnicity (non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, Mexican-American). Each stratified model adjusted for: age, BMI, BMI-sq, survey year, age*survey year, BMI*survey year, BMI-sq*survey year using linear regression.
Data on men not available for Mexico.
Source: China: The China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS, 1993 and 2011)24; England: The Health Survey for England (HSE), 1992–93 and 2008–920; United States: The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III:1988–94 and the combined NHANES 2007–8 plus 2009–10)19; Mexico: The Mexican Nutrition Survey 1999 (MSN 1999) and the Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey 2012 (NHNS 2012)25, 26.