HUMANS |
|
|
μh
|
Natural mortality rate |
3.69x10-5 day-1
|
[62] |
αh
|
VL lethality |
1.38x10-2 year-1
|
[2] |
ah
|
Average daily human bites by vector |
1.4x10-1day-1
|
Assumed (based on Ovallos, [63]) |
mh
|
Vector density per human |
1.07x10-1
|
Assumed (based on Ovallos, 2013—oral communication) |
βh
|
Latency period (L→A) |
3.3x10-2day-1
|
Estimated (based on Maia et al. [64]) |
δh
|
Recovery rate of asymptomatic individuals (A→R) |
9.1x10-4 day-1
|
Estimated (based on Badaro et al. [5]; Carvalho et al. [65]; Silva et al.[66]) |
fm
|
Proportion of asymptomatic individuals who recover |
83x10-2
|
[67] |
φh
|
Rate of symptom development (A→D) |
4.8x10-3 day-1
|
Estimated (based on Brazilian Ministery, [10]) |
fd
|
Proportion of individuals who become symptomatic |
17x10-2
|
[67] |
tth
|
Treatment rate (T→R) |
2.0x10-2 day-1
|
[68] |
σh
|
Recovery rate of treated individuals (D→R) |
1.4x10-3 day-1
|
Estimated (based on Carvalho et al. [65]; Silva et al.[66]; Alvar [69]) |
γh
|
Loss of cell-mediated immunity (R→S) |
5.47x10-4 day-1
|
Estimated (based on Badaro et al. [5]; Carvalho et al. [65]; Silva et al.[66]; Alvar [69]) |
Ωh
|
Birth rate |
αh + μh
|
|
DOGS |
|
|
μc
|
Natural mortality rate |
9.23x10-4 day-1
|
[70] |
αc
|
VL lethality |
2.12 year-1
|
[71] |
ac
|
Average daily dog bites by vector |
1.4x10-1 day-1
|
Assumed (based on Galvis [63]) |
mc
|
Vector density per dog |
1.94 |
Galvis, 2013 (oral communication) |
βc
|
Latency period (L→A) |
3.3x10-2 day-1
|
[64] |
fL
|
Proportion of individuals that remain asymptomatic |
22x10-2
|
[72] |
δc
|
Recovery rate of asymptomatic individuals (A→R) |
5.5x10-3 day-1
|
Estimated (based on Fisa et al. [73]; Silva et al. [74]) |
fR
|
Proportion of asymptomatic individuals that recover |
45x10-2
|
[72] |
φc
|
Rate of development of symptoms (A→D) |
1.1x10-2 day-1
|
Estimated |
fe
|
Proportion of individuals that become symptomatic |
32x10-2
|
[72] |
σc
|
Recovery rate of diseased individuals (D→R) |
2.73x10-3 day-1
|
Estimated (based on Garcia et al. [72]; Pozio et al. [71]) |
γc
|
Loss of cell-mediated immunity (R→S) |
2.73x10-3 day-1
|
Assumed |
Ωc
|
Birth rate |
αc + μc
|
|
VECTOR |
|
|
μv
|
Life expectancy of non-infected vectors |
9.09x10-2 day-1
|
[75] |
μf
|
Life expectancy of infected, non-infective vectors |
1.67x10-1 day-1
|
[75] |
μm
|
Life expectancy of infected and infective vectors |
2.5x10-1 day-1
|
Estimated (based on Kamhawi [76]) |
τ |
Extrinsic incubation period |
2.0x10-1 day-1
|
[76] |
b |
Fraction of infective bites |
1.5x10-1
|
Assumed (based on Burattini et al. [29]) |
chl
|
Proportion of insects that acquire infection after biting latent humans |
zero |
[77] |
che
|
Proportion of insects that acquire infection after biting diseased humans |
1.2 x10-2
|
[77] |
ccl
|
Proportion of insects that acquire infection after biting latent dogs |
38.5x10-2
|
[78] |
cce
|
Proportion of insects that acquire infection after biting diseased dogs |
24.7x10-2
|
[78] |
Ωf
|
Birth rate |
μv + μf + μm + μR
|
|
SYMBOLS OF INTERVENTIONS |
|
|
μe
|
Rate of latent dog culling X test sensitivity |
Coverage X Ss
|
|
μs
|
Rate of diseased dog culling X test sensitivity |
Coverage X Sa
|
|
ρ |
Rate of dogs protected by vaccination X vaccine efficacy |
Coverage X VE
|
|
VE |
Vaccine efficacy |
75% |
Approximated value of vaccine efficacies of Leish-Tec® [26] |
ε |
Loss of vaccine-induced immunity |
2.7x10-3 day-1
|
[79] |
ω |
Rate of collar use |
Coverage |
|
ψ |
Loss of collar effect |
2.8x10-3 day-1
|
[23] |
acc
|
Average daily collar-wearing dog bites by vector ad X (1 –collar repellent effect) |
ad X 10x10-2
|
[23] |
CE |
Average rate of collar repellent effect |
90x10-2
|
[23] |
μR
|
Mortality of insects that bite collar-wearing dogs |
acc X k
|
|
k |
Average collar-induced vector mortality rate |
55x10-2
|
[23] |
Sa
|
Test sensitivity in asymptomatic dogs |
98x10-2
|
[50] |
Ss
|
Test sensitivity in symptomatic dogs |
47x10-2
|
[50] |