Fig 2. Sensitivity analysis projecting the number and percentage of male US state prisoners with a history of chronic medical conditions incarcerated in a Medicaid non-expansion state who will be in the "coverage gap"* at release.

*In non-expansion states, subsidies are available to those with incomes 101%-400% FPL, but Medicaid was not extended to those at or below 100% FPL, creating a “coverage gap” among impoverished persons. **Respondents reported income by selecting one of several income categories (e.g. No income, $1–100, $200–400, etc.) for the month prior to their incarceration. We estimated monthly income based on the lowest and highest value and their average (i.e. "Mid-point") in the selected category. All monthly estimates were multiplied by 12 to estimate annual income and adjusted for inflation to 2014 dollars. Estimates were compared to 2014 ACA income guidelines to determine the percentage in the "coverage gap." ***Some evidence suggests that released prisoners earn less than their pre-incarceration wages. As with an earlier study[11], we applied a 15% wage penalty to the Low, Middle, and High pre-incarceration income estimates to account for this wage reduction in determining the percentage of prisoners in the "coverage gap."