Figure 6. Comparison of the association between precipitation extremes and temperature with observed and CMIP5 models.

(a) Shows the yearly variation in the multi-model means with error bars, of annual maximum precipitation and extreme days for both the historical period and RCP scenarios. The values inside the bracket represent the slope of the linear regression, suggesting that the trends in extremes will increase in the future. (b) Correlation matrix showing the correlation between spatial mean of annual maximum precipitation and extreme days with spatial mean of temperature from CMIP5 models and observed data over India. Most of the model extremes are positively correlated with both 2AT and TIO; however, the observed data show no significant correlation. The significant changes in the 50-year RL of annual maximum intensity (using the bootstrap approach) and changes in the mean of extreme days from cold to hot years (c) shows that models overestimate the significant changes in the characteristics of precipitation extremes. The figures are created in MATLAB (http://www.mathworks.com).