Table 3.
Value of 2012 International Consensus Guidelines criteria for prediction of malignancy.
| n (%) | Malignant tumors | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | PPV (%) | NPV (%) | Accuracy (%) | p | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-risk stigmata | ||||||||
| Obstructive jaundice | 5 (4%) | 5 (4 Inv) | 14% | 100% | 100% | 73% | 74% | 0.002 |
| MD ≥10 mm | 6 (5%) | 4 (0 Inv) | 11% | 98% | 67% | 72% | 72% | 0.065 |
| Enhancing solid component within cyst | 9 (7%) | 7 (4 Inv) | 19% | 97% | 78% | 74% | 78% | 0.001 |
| Worrisome features | ||||||||
| Cyst ≥30 mm | 43 (36%) | 16 (8 Inv) | 44% | 68% | 37% | 74% | 61% | 0.198 |
| MD size 5–9 mm | 44 (37%) | 19 (9 Inv) | 59% | 70% | 43% | 82% | 38% | 0.004 |
| Thickened cyst walls | 27 (22%) | 13 (8 Inv) | 36% | 83% | 48% | 75% | 69% | 0.019 |
| Non-enhancing mural nodule | 8 (7%) | 3 (1 Inv) | 8% | 94% | 37% | 70% | 37% | 0.632 |
| Abrupt change in caliber of MPD | 14 (12%) | 7 (3 Inv) | 19% | 92% | 50% | 73% | 70% | 0.118 |
PPV: positive predictive value; NPV: negative predictive value; MD: main pancreatic duct; Inv: invasive carcinoma