Table 1. Criteria to differentiate Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) dynamics, Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) dynamics, and Susceptible-Infectious-Latent- Infectious (SILI) dynamics in bats; strategies to predict the likelihood of spillover or to minimize the likelihood of spillover for viruses with each type of dynamics; and research that would improve our understanding of bat virus dynamics given each scenario^†.

Criterion	SIR	SIRS	SILI
Individuals have repeated pulses of excretion.	No	Yes	Yes
Virus genotype is the same in repeated pulses of excretion in individuals.	N/A	No*	Yes
Virus genotypes in multiple pulses of excretion in a population have shared ancestry.	No	Yes	Yes
Virus genotype is different in each population pulse.	Yes*	No prediction	No
Age-specific seroprevalence increases monotonically.**	Yes	Yes**	No**
Waves of infection travel among populations.	Yes	No prediction	No***
Past infection increases the likelihood of present infection. Prevalence of infection among previously positive individuals is higher than among the population.****	N/A	No	Yes
Information needed for prediction of pulses	Herd immunity within and among populations	Drivers of contact rates, especially environmental drivers	Drivers of stress, especially environmental drivers
Intervention strategies
Disperse bats	Movement of infectious or susceptible bats could spark epidemics elsewhere; local risk may be neutral or may decrease.		Stress of intervention may increase viral reactivation and shedding.
Cull bats	No effect on risk of spillover if transmission is driven by local density of bats; decreased local risk if transmission is driven by population size.		Stress of intervention may increase viral reactivation and shedding.
Research agenda	Monitor herd immunity and metapopulation structure.	Estimate rate of waning immunity; identify contact structure and factors that change contact rates.	Identify drivers of viral reactivation, especially environmental drivers of stress.

^†SIR, SIRS, and SILI dynamics may be poles on a continuum depending on the time spent in each host state (e.g., an SIRS disease with a long R duration may generate similar dynamics to an SIR disease) and the percentage of individuals that exhibit each dynamic (e.g., if most individuals recover but a few experience SILI dynamics).

*provided there is sufficient resolution in the genotyping.

**assuming antibodies are protective and that studies address multiple epidemics; seroprevalence increases monotonically with SIRS dynamics given particular parameter values.

***waves of invasion may occur for SILI if introduced into naïve connected populations.

**** assuming homogenous transmission dynamics.