Table 3.
Results of geostatistical models predicting malaria parasite prevalence in children 1–59 months, Zambia 2006–2012
| Predictor | Full model | Prediction model | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OR | 95 % BCI | OR | 95 % BCI | ||
| Age in years | < 1 (ref) | ||||
| 1–2 | 1.85 | (1.48–2.32) | |||
| 2–3 | 3.20 | (2.57–3.97) | |||
| 3–4 | 3.14 | (2.53–3.90) | |||
| 4–5 | 3.98 | (3.19–4.95) | |||
| Wealth | Poorest (ref) | ||||
| Second | 0.88 | (0.74–1.04) | |||
| Third | 0.76 | (0.63–0.91) | |||
| Fourth | 0.62 | (0.50–0.77) | |||
| Richest | 0.36 | (0.24–0.52) | |||
| Population size per km-sq | < 1000 | ||||
| At least 1000 | 0.56 | (0.35–0.89) | 0.45 | (0.28–0.72) | |
| HH ITN ownership | 0 | ||||
| ≥ 1 | 0.74 | (0.64–0.86) | |||
| Cluster ITN per person | 0.62 | (0.27–1.37) | 0.42 | (0.18–0.93) | |
| Cluster IRS rate | 0.30 | (0.18–0.51) | 0.25 | (0.15–0.43) | |
| Distance to nearest water (km) | 0.98 | (0.95–1.02) | 0.98 | (0.94–1.02) | |
| Altitude (km) | 0.19 | (0.07–0.50) | 0.17 | (0.07–0.45) | |
| Enhanced Vegetation Index | (2 SDsa) | 1.98 | (1.48–2.65) | 2.09 | (1.55–2.81) |
| Rainfall (mm) | (2 SDs) | 2.04 | (1.38–3.00) | 2.03 | (1.38–2.97) |
| Spatial variance | 1.81 | (1.35–2.39) | 1.78 | (1.33–2.35) | |
Odds ratio (OR) and 95 % Bayesian Credibility Interval (BCI) presented where relevant
a SD standard deviation