Table 4.
Modeled population-adjusted predicted prevalence (PAPfPR1–59) by province and year, and predictions under constant climate or ITN scenarios, Zambia 2006–2012. Alternative predictions for 2010 were produced by including either the 2008 climate layers (for constant climate prediction) or the 2008 ITN and IRS layers (for constant vector control prediction)
| Annual predictions (%) (95 % BCI) | Alternative predictions for 2010 (%) (95 % BCI) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Province | 2006 | 2008 | 2010 | 2012 | With constant climate | With constant vector control |
| Central | 22.7 (5.0–52.4) | 8.8 (1.3–27.1) | 15.0 (3.2–36.4) | 12.9 (2.7–33.2) | 7.8 (1.3–23.4) | 15.8 (3.4–37.6) |
| Lusaka | 5.4 (0.7–16.5) | 1.8 (0.2–5.8) | 1.7 (0.2–5.4) | 1.0 (0.1–3.7) | 0.7 (0.1–2.7) | 1.9 (0.2–5.7) |
| Copperbelt | 17.3 (5.1–38.4) | 14.8 (5.9–29.0) | 13.2 (5.5–26.0) | 6.0 (1.2–16.5) | 7.1 (2.7–15.3) | 12.8 (5.2–25.1) |
| Eastern | 29.9 (8.6–60.0) | 12.5 (3.2–30.7) | 28.0 (10.1–54.1) | 23.0 (7.7–47.4) | 17.7 (5.4–39.3) | 29.6 (10.9–56.1) |
| Luapula | 31.6 (9.7–63.2) | 19.9 (5.8–43.7) | 35.1 (14.5–60.8) | 32.8 (12.4–59.3) | 27.5 (9.8–52.9) | 35.4 (14.6–61.5) |
| Northern | 26.8 (6.5–60.1) | 14.4 (3.1–39.4) | 17.3 (5.2–39.7) | 19.7 (5.6–44.9) | 12.3 (3.3–30.6) | 17.0 (5.1–39.1) |
| North-western | 22.3 (2.2–65.3) | 12.7 (1.6–40.7) | 16.0 (2.2–48.8) | 17.6 (2.9–49.9) | 9.6 (1.2–33.0) | 17.1 (2.4–50.8) |
| Southern | 11.4 (1.7–36.5) | 7.1 (1.7–18.8) | 9.6 (2.3–24.1) | 7.7 (1.7–21.9) | 6.1 (1.1–17.3) | 9.5 (2.3–23.4) |
| Western | 16.1 (2.2–47.3) | 5.8 (0.6–22.1) | 8.1 (1.0–27.9) | 14.3 (2.3–42.1) | 5.3 (0.6–19.8) | 9.7 (1.3–31.9) |
| National | 19.6 (4.6–46.4) | 10.4 (2.6–26.8) | 15.3 (4.9–33.7) | 13.5 (3.7–31.7) | 9.9 (2.7–24.2) | 15.7 (5.0–34.3) |