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. 2016 Aug 5;16:91. doi: 10.1186/s12876-016-0506-4

Table 1.

Input parameters used in the model

Input parameters Mean Standard error Distribution Ref.
Transition probability parameters
 Genotype 1
  chronic HCV to compensated cirrhosis year 1-10 0.0057 0.0057 Beta [24]
  chronic HCV to compensated cirrhosis year 11-20 0.0143 0.0141 Beta [24]
  chronic HCV to compensated cirrhosis year 21-30 0.0207 0.0203 Beta [24]
  chronic HCV to HCC year 1-10 0.0007 0.0007 Beta [24]
  chronic HCV to HCC year 11-20 0.0032 0.0032 Beta [24]
  chronic HCV to HCC year 21-30 0.0063 0.0062 Beta [24]
  chronic HCV to death 0.0070 0.0070 Beta [25]
  compensated cirrhosis to decompensated cirrhosis year1-3 0.0417 0.0400 Beta [26]
  compensated cirrhosis to decompensated cirrhosis year 4-5 0.0945 0.0855 Beta [26]
  compensated cirrhosis to decompensated cirrhosis year 6-10 0.0662 0.0618 Beta [26]
  compensated cirrhosis to HCC year 1-3 0.0135 0.0133 Beta [26]
  compensated cirrhosis to HCC year 4-5 0.0356 0.0344 Beta [26]
  compensated cirrhosis to HCC year 6-10 0.0297 0.0288 Beta [26]
  compensated cirrhosis to death year 1-3 0.0135 0.0133 Beta [26]
  compensated cirrhosis to death year 4-5 0.0461 0.0439 Beta [26]
  compensated cirrhosis to death year 6-10 0.0461 0.0439 Beta [26]
  decompensated cirrhosis to HCC 0.0681 0.0635 Beta [27]
  decompensated cirrhosis to death year 1 0.2600 0.1924 Beta [24]
  decompensated cirrhosis to death year 2 0.3900 0.2379 Beta [24]
  decompensated cirrhosis to death year 3-5 0.2394 0.1821 Beta [24]
  HCC to death year 1 0.8482 0.0011 Beta [28]
  HCC to death year 2 0.9201 0.0009 Beta [28]
 Genotype 6
  chronic HCV to compensated cirrhosis year 1-10 0.0057 0.0057 Beta [24]
  chronic HCV to compensated cirrhosis year 11-20 0.0143 0.0141 Beta [24]
  chronic HCV to compensated cirrhosis year 21-30 0.0207 0.0203 Beta [24]
  chronic HCV to HCC year 1-10 0.0007 0.0007 Beta [24]
  chronic HCV to HCC year 11-20 0.0032 0.0032 Beta [24]
  chronic HCV to HCC year 21-30 0.0063 0.0062 Beta [24]
  chronic HCV to death 0.0070 0.0070 Beta [25]
  compensated cirrhosis to decompensated cirrhosis year 1-3 0.0417 0.0400 Beta [26]
  compensated cirrhosis to decompensated cirrhosis year 4-5 0.0945 0.0855 Beta [26]
  compensated cirrhosis to decompensated cirrhosis year 6-10 0.0662 0.0618 Beta [26]
  compensated cirrhosis to HCC year 1-3 0.0135 0.0133 Beta [26]
  compensated cirrhosis to HCC year 4-5 0.0356 0.0344 Beta [26]
  compensated cirrhosis to HCC year 6-10 0.0297 0.0288 Beta [26]
  compensated cirrhosis to death year 1-3 0.0135 0.0133 Beta [26]
  compensated cirrhosis to death year 4-5 0.0461 0.0439 Beta [26]
  compensated cirrhosis to death year 6-10 0.0461 0.0439 Beta [26]
  decompensated cirrhosis to HCC 0.0681 0.0635 Beta [27]
  decompensated cirrhosis to death year 1 0.2600 0.1924 Beta [24]
  decompensated cirrhosis to death year 2 0.3900 0.2379 Beta [24]
  decompensated cirrhosis to death year 3-5 0.2394 0.1821 Beta [24]
  HCC to death year 1 0.8482 0.0011 Beta [28]
  HCC to death year 2 0.9201 0.0009 Beta [28]
  Virological responses
 Genotype 1
  Pegylated interferon alpha 2b and Ribavirin
  Probability of SVR 0.2720 0.0057 Beta [29–31]
  Probability of RVR 0.1302 0.0033 Beta [29–31]
  Probability to change from RVR to SVR 0.8620 0.1190 Beta [29]
  Probability of NR 0.2449 0.0055 Beta [29, 31]
 Pegylated interferon alpha 2a and Ribavirin
  RR of SVR (peg 2a vs peg 2b) 1.1950 0.0492 Log normal calculated
  RR of RVR (peg 2a vs peg 2b) 1.1300 0.0353 Log normal calculated
  RR of NR (peg 2a vs peg 2b) 0.6960 0.1134 Log normal calculated
 Genotype 6
  RR of SVR (gen 6 vs gen 1) 1.2200 Log normal [32]
  RR of RVR (gen 6 vs gen 1) 1.6800 Log normal [32]
 Health utility
  Chronic hepatitis C infection 0.7284 0.0011 Beta [13]
  Compensated cirrhosis 0.7023 0.0020 Beta [13]
  Decompensated cirrhosis 0.5774 0.0020 Beta [13]
  Hepatocellular carcinoma 0.5778 0.0023 Beta [13]
  SVR (Healthy) 0.7955 0.0018 Beta [13]