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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2017 Jun 1.
Published in final edited form as: J Am Coll Surg. 2016 Mar 3;222(6):1125–1137. doi: 10.1016/j.jamcollsurg.2016.02.014

Table 2.

Base Case Result and per Patient Scenario Analyses: Expected Cost, Quality-Adjusted Life Years and Mortality per Injured Patient Transported by Emergency Medical Service for the 3 Field Triage Scenarios

Expected lifetime cost Incremental cost per patient Expected lifetime QALYs gained Incremental QALY gained per patient ICER ($ per QALY)* Expected1-y mortality, absolute % Incremental mortality reduction up to 1 y, %
Base case analysis
 Moderate Sensitivity 317,318 N/A 12.6586 N/A 3.5530
 Current Triage 317,494 176 12.6606 0.002 88,000 3.5417 -0.0113
 High Sensitivity 319,470 1,976 12.6621 0.0015 1,317,333 3.5334 -0.0083
Scenario 1: Perfect adherence for triage-positive patients (all triage- positive patients are transported to Level I or II trauma centers)
 Moderate Sensitivity 317,967 N/A 12.6611 N/A 3.5383
 Current Triage 318,205 238 12.6637 0.0026 91,538 3.5237 -0.0147
 High Sensitivity 320,977 2,772 12.6655 0.0018 1,540,000 3.5132 -0.0105
Scenario 2: Perfect adherence for triage-negative patients (all triage- negative patients are transported to non-trauma hospitals)
 Moderate Sensitivity 315,339 N/A 12.6542 N/A 3.5779
 Current Triage 315,672 333 12.6587 0.0045 74,000 3.5528 -0.0251
 High Sensitivity 318,994 3,322 12.6619 0.0032 1,038,125 3.5348 -0.0179
Scenario 3: Perfect adherence for triage-positive and triage-negative patients.
 Moderate Sensitivity 315,988 N/A 12.6567 N/A 3.5632
 Current Triage 316,383 395 12.6617 0.0050 79,000 3.5347 -0.0285
 High Sensitivity 320,502 4,119 12.6653 0.0036 1,144,167 3.5144 -0.0203
Scenario 4: No survival benefit and no higher initial treatment cost for patients transferred from non-trauma centers to Level I or II centers.
 Moderate Sensitivity 317,229 N/A 12.6568 N/A 3.5711
 Current Triage 317,421 192 12.6594 0.0026 73,846 3.5539 -0.0172
 High Sensitivity 319,419 1,998 12.6613 0.0019 1,051,579 3.5416 -0.0123
Scenario 5: No survival benefit for patients transferred from a non-trauma hospital to a Level I or II trauma center, but higher initial treatment cost, as in base case analysis.
 Moderate Sensitivity 317,297 N/A 12.6575 N/A 3.5712
 Current Triage 317,480 183 12.6599 0.0024 76,250 3.554 -0.0172
 High Sensitivity 319,460 1,980 12.6616 0.0015 1,320,000 3.5416 -0.0124
Scenario 6: Lower mortality benefit among level II trauma centers compared to Level I centers (half of in- hospital and 1-y mortality reduction)
 Moderate Sensitivity 317,232 N/A 12.6580 N/A 3.5585
 Current Triage 317,403 183 12.6598 0.0018 101,667 3.5474 -0.0111
 High Sensitivity 319,376 1980 12.6611 0.0015 1,320,000 3.5395 -0.0079
*

‘Incremental’ values are the difference compared with the next less costly scenario (ie, the row above).

b

ICER equals incremental cost divided by incremental QALY.

QALY, quality-adjusted life years; ICER, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.